Coffee Market Report

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market increase their net long position by 26.09% within this market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 25th. August; to register a new net long position of 35,031 lots. Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 0.69%, to register a net long position of 58,975 Lots on the day.

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 34.44% to register a new net long position of 22,218 Lots which is the equivalent of 6,298,705 bags. This net long position has most likely been further increased, following the period of positive trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market increase their net long position by 67.64% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 25th. August; to register a new long position of 9,279 Lots. This net long position is the equivalent of 1,546,500 bags and has most likely been further increased following the period of positive trade that has since followed.

The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, which is the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of August were 26,438 bags or 8.48% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 285,068 bags. This contributes to the islands cumulative robusta coffee exports for the first eleven months of the present October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year to be 410,076 bags or 17.71% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 2,725,341 bags.

The November to December contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 64.24 usc/Lb. This equates to 49.78% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 38,783 bags yesterday to register these stocks at 1,233,666 bags, with 93.9% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,157,895 bags and the remaining 6.1% being held in the USA at a total of 75,771 bags. There is meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 3,915 bags.

It was a firmer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a positive sideways track for the day. The Sugar, Cocoa and New York Arabica Coffee markets ended the day on a positive note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.7119% higher; to see this index registered at 416.3988. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.342 to Sterling, at 1.199 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.492 Brazilian Real.

The New York market trading solo for the day yesterday started the day trading a positive note, the market continued on this upward path for much of the morning trade before starting to attract a small degree of selling pressure. As the afternoon progressed the New York market under some degree of selling pressure dropped back before gaining support to see the market close on a positive note for the day.

The London market ended the day on Friday on a positive note and with 55.81% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day yesterday on a likewise positive note and with 70.13% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close for the New York Market might inspire some degree of confidence which is likely to set the markets for a near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set on Friday for the London market and yesterday New York market, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                        NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

SEP 1522 + 24                                                                   SEP 129.80 + 2.70
NOV 1429 + 24                                                                 DEC 129.05 + 2.70
JAN 1436 + 23                                                                   MAR 129.80 + 2.45
MAR 1448 + 22                                                                 MAY 130.80 + 2.35
MAY 1462 + 22                                                                 JUL 131.60 + 2.20
JUL 1475 + 22                                                                   SEP 132.15 + 2.15
SEP 1487 + 22                                                                   DEC 133.00 + 2.05
NOV 1501 + 23                                                                 MAR 134.50 + 1.95