Coffee Market Report
The National Coffee Institute of Honduras (IHCAFE) have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of November were 55.36% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 47,685 bags. The drastic decrease in exports is due to the effects of both Hurricane Eta and Iota which caused great damage to internal infrastructure in Honduras. Thousands have been displaced in the valley city of San Pedro Sula, and in outer lying lower areas, where the slow rebuilding process has now begun.
The National Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (ICAFE) have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of November were 84.52% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 29,147 bags. This they say has contributed to the cumulative coffee exports for the first two months of the October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year to be 80% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 46,562 bags. The increase in exports for October is said to be a direct result of higher crop output amid good weather conditions.
The Brazil government have reported that the country’s green coffee exports for the month of November were 1,301,767 bags or 39.50% higher than the same month last year, at a new record total of 4,597,333 bags. The November green coffee exports for Brazil are 1,173,491 bags or 34.30% higher when compared to the same month in the previous biennially bearing larger crop year of 2018. The large increase in reported exports for this month when compared to the same month in the previous years can be attributed to the biennially bearing larger production for the 2020 coffee year, to similarly reflect the increased exports of Conilon robusta, to consumer markets over the same month in the previous year, the official breakdown of coffee exports by description for November will soon be released which will more accurately illustrate this.
The January 2021 to March 2021 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday: to register this at 58.18 usc/Lb. This equates to 48.85% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 12,645 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 1,273,120 bags, with 93.8% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,180,665 bags and the remaining 6.2% being held in the USA at a total 92,455 bags. There was meanwhile a smaller in number 10,170 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 68,550 bags.
The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 7,667 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 30th. November, to see these stocks registered at 2,217,000 bags, on the day.
It was a neutral day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways track for the day. The Sugar and New York Arabica Coffee markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa and London Robusta Coffee markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.0282% higher; to see this index registered 437.1021. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar, trading at 1.339 Sterling, at 1.212 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.218 Real.
The New York market started the day yesterday trading on a modest firmer note and continued on this positive path for most of the morning session, while the London market started the day yesterday trading on a softer note, the market continued on this softer note for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed the New York market came under a degree of selling pressure but quickly recovered to see the market settle on a modest firmer note for the day, while the London market continued on a softer path accentuating the losses for the day, to see the market settle on a softer note for the day.
The London market ended the day on a negative note with 75.47% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note with 59.10% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This mixed close does little to indicate direction and one might think the markets are due for a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
JAN 1343 – 40 MAR 119.10 + 0.65
MAR 1364 – 24 MAY 120.90 + 0.50
MAY 1376 – 24 JUL 122.50 + 0.45
JUL 1392 – 24 SEP 123.90 + 0.45
SEP 1409 – 23 DEC 125.55 + 0.40
NOV 1425 – 23 MAR 127.05 + 0.35
JAN 1440 – 23 MAY 127.85 + 0.40
MAR 1455 – 23 JUL 128.50 + 0.35
