Coffee Market Report

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market increased their net long position within this market by 30.54% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 15th. December; to register a new net long position of 18,803 lots. Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 0.28%, to register a net long position of 60,443 Lots on the day.

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market raided their net long position within the market by 28.31% to register a new net long position of 19,469 Lots which is the equivalent of 5,519,375 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased, following the period of mixed but overall firmer sideways trade that has since followed.

The March 2021 to March 2021 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday: to register this at 61.90 usc/Lb. This equates to 49.74% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 8,870 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 1,382,686 bags, with 94.2% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,302,917 bags and the remaining 5.8% being held in the USA at a total 79,769 bags. There was meanwhile a larger in number 15,220 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 60,290 bags.

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to increase by 44,833 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 21st. December, to see these stocks registered at 2,283,167 bags, on the day.

It was a neutral day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways track for the day. The Sugar market ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa and Coffee markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.3352% lower; to see this index registered 446.9824. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar, trading at 1.34 Sterling, at 1.22 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.16 Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest softer note, both markets continued on to oscillate around par for most of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed both markets gained momentum to see the markets hit a ceiling for the day before dropping back from the highs of the day limiting the days gains. Both the London and the New York markets settled on a modest soft note for the day.

The London market ended the day on a modest negative note with 40% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York ended the day on a likewise modest negative note with 7.14% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close does little to indicate direction nor does it inspire confidence, one might think that the markets are possibly due for a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                   NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

MAR 1379 – 4                                              MAR 124.20 – 0.10
MAY 1388 – 3                         MAY 126.15 – 0.05
JUL 1402 – 2                                         JUL 127.70 Unch
SEP 1418 – 1                                 SEP 129.15 + 0.15
NOV 1434 – 1                          DEC 130.60 + 0.30
JAN 1450 – 1                             MAR 131.90 + 0.35
MAR 1465 – 1                            MAY 132.50 + 0.35
MAY 1483 – 1                         JUL 133.05 + 0.30