Coffee Market Report
The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of February was 106,000 bags or 10.59% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,107,000 bags. This has contributed to the countries cumulative production for the first five months of the present October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year to be 73,000 bags or 1.11% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 6,533,000 bags.
The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have also reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of February were 197,000 bags or 18.27% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,275,000 bags. This has contributed to the country’s cumulative coffee exports for the first five months of the present October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year to be 87,000 bags or 1.47% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 5,989,000 bags.
The consultancy and commodity broker StoneX has come forth with their report to forecast Brazil coffee production could potentially be around 51.40 million bags the coming July 2021 to June 2022 coffee year. The forecast anticipates 31.40 million bags to come from this leading producer of mostly natural arabica coffee, along with an estimated 20 million bags Conilon robusta coffee.
The May-to-May contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday: to register this at 68.37 usc/Lb. This equates to 51.74% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 7,571 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 1,797,622 bags, with 94.7% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,701,801 bags and the remaining 5.3% being held in the USA at a total 95,821 bags. There was meanwhile a smaller in number 5,315 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 70,342 bags.
It was a softer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways track for the day. The Sugar market ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa and Coffee markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.69% lower; to see this index registered 491.35. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar, trading at 1.388 Sterling, at 1.196 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.669 Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest firmer note, both markets attracted a degree of selling pressure early in the morning session to see the markets set on a softer path for the day. As the afternoon progressed both the New York and the London markets hit a floor limiting the losses for the day and to see the markets bounce back from the lows of the day. The New York market settled on a modest softer note for the day, while the London market followed suit to also settle on a softer note for the day.
The London market ended the day on a negative note with 66.67% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 28.26% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close, does little to inspire confidence nor does it indicate direction, albeit that the New York market recovered to some degree from the earlier in the day losses, one might think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
MAY 1406 – 20 MAY 132.15 – 0.65
JUL 1427 – 19 JUL 134.05 – 0.70
SEP 1442 – 17 SEP 135.85 – 0.65
NOV 1456 – 16 DEC 137.45 – 0.65
JAN 1470 – 15 MAR 138.80 – 0.65
MAR 1486 – 15 MAY 139.50 – 0.60
MAY 1502 – 15 JUL 140.05 – 0.55
JUL 1518 – 15 SEP 140.45 – 0.55
