Coffee Market Report
The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil Cecafé have reported that the countries green coffee exports for the month of February were 11.23% higher than the same month last year, to total 2.99 million bags, this number made up of 2.68 million bags of Arabica Coffee up 8.50% from the same month last year and 312,290 bags of Robusta Coffee up 42% from the same month last year.
The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil Cecafé have since reported the cumulative exports of green coffee for the first eight months of the July 2020 to June 2021 Brazil coffee year, to be 28.45% higher, overall at the end of February than the same period in the previous coffee year at a total of 28.35 million bags. This large increase in reported exports for the first eight months of the current July 2020 to June 2021 coffee year can be attributed to the biennially bearing larger, record production harvested in the 2020/21 coffee year.
The Vietnam Customs Authority have reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports for the month of February are down by 23.50% from the previous month, to total 2,047,217 bags. This number proving to be higher than the 1.83 million bags that had been initially forecast for the month’s coffee exports. The report also states that for the first two months of the 2021 calendar year, Vietnam coffee exports are 14.70% lower than the same period last year at a total of 4,722,317 bags. The report also indicates that the coffee export revenue for the first two months of 2021 calendar year is 11.50% lower than the same period last year at a total of around 496 million US Dollars.
This comparatively lower export performance month on month during February from Vietnam can be attributed to the low period of activity within the interior over the festive Tet Lunar New Year, observed in February this year. One might anticipate an increase in coffee exports to flow to the consumer markets in the coming month as commercial activity gains momentum, subsequent to the February weeks’ celebrations.
The May-to-May contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday: to register this at 66.90 usc/Lb. This equates to 51.30% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 12,095 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 1,827,663 bags, with 94.7% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,731,192 bags and the remaining 5.3% being held in the USA at a total 96,471 bags. There was meanwhile a larger in number 13,720 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 35,466 bags.
The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 5,333 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 8th. March, to see these stocks registered at 2,398,500 bags, on the day.
It was a softer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways track for the day. The Coffee markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar and Cocoa markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.12% lower; to see this index registered 492.96. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar, trading at 1.386 Sterling, at 1.188 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.803 Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest firmer note, both markets quickly turned to trade on a modest softer note. The markets continued to oscillate around par for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed both the New York and London markets hovered around par before gaining momentum late in the day to see the markets settle on a firmer note for the day.
The London market ended the day on a positive note with 90.70% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 43.86% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close might inspire some degree of confidence to possibly set the markets for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
MAY 1400 + 39 MAY 130.40 + 1.25
JUL 1420 + 38 JUL 132.40 + 1.25
SEP 1439 + 40 SEP 134.25 + 1.25
NOV 1455 + 41 DEC 136.20 + 1.35
JAN 1469 + 41 MAR 137.85 + 1.40
MAR 1486 + 42 MAY 138.65 + 1.35
MAY 1504 + 44 JUL 139.10 + 1.25
JUL 1521 + 46 SEP 139.40 + 1.20
