Coffee Market Report

The May-to-May contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday: to register this at 67.30 usc/Lb. This equates to 51.43% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 3,840 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 1,831,143 bags, with 94.8% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,735,747 bags and the remaining 5.2% being held in the USA at a total 95,396 bags. There was meanwhile a larger in number 6,195 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 29,271 bags.

This marks the nineth consecutive day that the certified washed arabica stocks held against the New York exchange have been seen to increase. Brazil washed arabica coffees are tenderable to the exchange and following on from the record crop of July 2020 to June 2021, has seen these washed arabica coffees register increased deliveries to the New York exchange over these months of shipment, to now have surpassed Honduras, to become the main origin held at the exchange with a total of 838,159 bags currently held in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange.

It was a firmer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways track for the day. The Sugar, Cocoa and Coffee markets ended the day on a positive note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.11% higher; to see this index registered 493.52. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar, trading at 1.394 Sterling, at 1.193 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.672 Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest firmer note, both markets quickly turned to trade on a modest softer note. The markets continued on this softer path for most of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed both the New York and London markets continued to trend softer, to hit a floor limiting the gains for the day. Late in the afternoon session saw the markets recover from the earlier in the day losses to see both the New York and the London markets settle on a modest firmer note for the day.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 40% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 22.50% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close might inspire some degree of confidence, albeit that both markets fell back from the highs of the day, to possibly set the markets for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT               NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

MAY 1401 + 10                                         MAY 130.85 + 0.45
JUL 1433 + 13                                           JUL 132.85 + 0.45
SEP 1452 + 13                                           SEP 134.70 + 0.45
NOV 1469 + 14                                         DEC 136.70 + 0.50
JAN 1483 + 14                                          MAR 138.40 + 0.55
MAR 1499 + 13                                        MAY 139.20 + 0.55
MAY 1516 + 12                                        JUL 139.70 + 0.60
JUL 1533 + 12                                          SEP 140.05 + 0.65