Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market raise their net long position within this market by 12.76% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 29th. June; to register a new net long position of 37,941 lots. Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 0.22%, to register a net long position of 72,784 Lots on the day.
Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 19.10% to register a new net long position 31,515 Lots, which is the equivalent of 8,934,363 bags. This net long position has most likely been marginally decreased following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.
The September-to-September contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 76.53 usc/Lb. This equates to 50.00% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. This wide arbitrage will likely be viewed by price sensitive roasters as an attractive alternative discount for robusta against the comparatively higher value arabica coffee.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange with the exchange closed for the Independence Day holiday remained unchanged yesterday, to register these stocks at 2,171,324 bags, with 93.59% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 2,032,164 bags and the remaining 6.41% being held in the USA at a total 139,160 bags. Of this, a total 1,151,066 bags, or 53.01% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 39.89% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 35,449 bags.
The commodity markets lacked the participation of many of the U.S.A based markets yesterday, which were closed due to the Independence Day holiday on Sunday the 4th July, to provide no direction for the overall macro commodity index for the day. The Sugar, Cocoa, Gold, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a positive note, while the London Robusta Coffee and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.388 Sterling, at 1.188 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.092 Brazil Real.
The London market started the day yesterday trading close to par on a modest negative note, the market trading solo for the day continued on this soft track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the London market maintained its soft stance from the morning session, before gaining some degree of momentum into the late afternoon session to see the market recover some of the earlier in the day losses and settle on a softer note at the close.
The London market ended the day yesterday on a negative note and with 55.56% of the losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on Friday, on a likewise negative note and with 93.05% of the losses of the day intact. This softer close does little to inspire confidence, one might think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday in New York and Yesterday in London, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
Close 05/07/2021 Close 02/07/2021
SEP 1687 – 20 SEP 153.05 – 3.35
NOV 1683 – 16 DEC 155.95 – 3.35
JAN 1680 – 11 MAR 158.65 – 3.30
MAR 1677 – 9 MAY 159.90 – 3.25
MAY 1681 – 8 JUL 160.90 – 3.25
JUL 1692 – 6 SEP 161.65 – 3.25
SEP 1704 – 6 DEC 162.65 – 3.25
NOV 1714 – 7 MAR 163.60 – 3.25
