Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector cut their net long position by 4.45% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 2nd. November: to register a net long position of 42,864 lots, which is the equivalent of 12,151,754 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market cut their net long position by 7.92% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 2nd. November: to register a new net long position of 34,897 Lots which is the equivalent of 5,816,167 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.
The January 2022 to December 2021 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday to register this at 104.62 usc/Lb. This equates to 51.40% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. This wide arbitrage will likely be viewed by price sensitive roasters as an attractive alternative discount for robusta against the comparatively higher value arabica coffee.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to remain unchanged on Friday, to register these stocks at 1,849,501 bags, with 95.52% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,766,574 bags and the remaining 4.48% being held in the USA at a total 82,927 bags. Of this, a total 958,029 bags, or 51.80% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 42.16% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile a increase of 1,582 bags to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 12,051 bags pending grading on the day.
It was a firmer day on the commodity markets on Friday, as investors held on to the view that the US Federal Reserve would be taking a measured approach to monetary policy and keep interest rates low for the time being. The Sugar, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Wheat and Soybean markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.348 Sterling, at 1.156 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.543 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day on Friday trading on a modest near to par, softer note. The markets quickly started to attract a degree of selling pressure to see the markets trend softer for the remainder of the morning session. The markets hesitantly traded south of par before coming under pressure from long liquidation selling activity to accentuate the losses for the day’s trade. The markets rebounded slightly from the lows of the day to recover some of the earlier in the day losses late in the day, to see both the New York and London markets settle on negative notes at the close.
The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 71.88% of the losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note and with 80.16% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close does little to indicate direction nor does it inspire confidence, with both markets settling near to the lows of the day, one might think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
JAN 2181 – 23 DEC 203.55 – 5.05
MAR 2131 – 23 MAR 206.40 – 5.05
MAY 2106 – 21 MAY 207.15 – 4.95
JUL 2097 – 20 JUL 207.35 – 4.75
SEP 2091 – 17 SEP 207.45 – 4.65
NOV 2094 – 15 DEC 207.60 – 4.55
JAN 2101 – 16 MAR 207.85 – 4.50
MAR 2099 – 16 MAY 208.15 – 4.35
