Market Reports

With the prevailing twelve-month coffee year in Vietnam that is already eight months in, it has seen exports registered to consumer markets at a total 18.53 million bags during the first seven completed months of the current coffee year.  The weather conditions reflect a seasonally stable environment in the near term, and this largest robusta producer country is forecast to see seasonal rainfall come to the fore after a mildly warmer and drier than normal April.  These weather patterns will continue to be monitored, particularly as forecasts from the Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration indicate a likelihood that El Niño conditions could develop later in the year. For Vietnam, El Niño weather patterns are generally associated with warmer and drier conditions across parts of the Central Highlands coffee belt, which can at times influence soil moisture levels. While it remains too early to determine any meaningful impact on production prospects for the next crop cycle, the weather outlook is likely to remain a key point of interest in the months ahead, for coffee market players.

It has been reported meanwhile that trade activity in Vietnam remains subdued, coffee is released at a measured pace as and when the market provides sufficient price support.  There are several months ahead to set the new primarily robusta coffee crop that will start to come to the markets toward the end of this year, from this leading producer and exporter of robusta coffee.

Within Brazil, weather conditions have been reported to be seasonally normal, with dry conditions experienced throughout most of the main arabica coffee growing regions for May thus far, which would be considered normal for the time of year. Weather forecasters expect temperatures to begin to drop towards the end of the month as the southern hemisphere enters the traditionally cooler winter months.

The Brazilian Coffee Roasters Association ABIC has reported that during the November 2024 to October 2025 period, Brazilian local coffee consumption declined by 2.30% from the same period in the previous year. This they say resulted in 21.40 million bags of coffee consumption over the time.  ABIC has also reported that the roasted coffee industry revenue in Brazil increased 25.60% year on year over the same November 2024 to October 2025 period to total US$ 8.90 billion.  The higher futures reference prices of the year in discussion, translates rapidly within this largest producer and second largest coffee consumer market, to see a reflection in the formal retail market increases to coffee related finished product prices that quickly transfer to consumer retail and supermarkets.  The apparent decline in consumption demand, likely a primary reaction to the increase in coffee price on shelf.  The cumulative consumption decline that is reflected as a low percentage is the equivalent of around 550,000 Bags, significant enough.  Although there is a percentage of at home and relatively informally measured consumption, that may have likely increased through the same time, within coffee producer regions where coffee is equally a staple in every kitchen and less formally reported for consumption statistical purposes. ABIC expects a slight recovery in internal Brazil coffee consumption during the current 2025/26 coffee year as consumer prices begin to stabilise and availability is anticipated to improve with the arrival of the Brazil crop harvest ahead.

In other news, Brazil’s Central Bank reduced their benchmark Selic rate by 25 basis points during their April meeting to now be 14.50%. This as inflation begins to ease as the Brazil Real has strengthened to the US Dollar, trading at its highest levels since January 2024, assisting to make imports comparatively cheaper, despite rising energy prices.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange remained unchanged yesterday, to register these stocks at 477,045 bags, with 72.97% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 348,118 and the remaining 27.03% being held in the USA at a total 128,927 bags. Of this, a total 14,645 or 3.07% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 27.63% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 131,814 bags and 13.36% from Peru at a total 63,754 bags. The pending grading stocks remained unchanged on the day, registering 14,593 bags pending grading, the majority origin pending grading Honduras, adding up to 65.96% of the total.

The July 2026 to July 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 123.36 Usc/Lb. This equates to 43.70% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, as focus turns to the Consumer Price Index CPI data due out later today followed by Producer Price Index PPI data tomorrow, to provide speculative guidance on inflation related and monetary policy decisions to come. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.356 Sterling, at 1.176 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.887 Brazil Real.

The London market opened the day yesterday on a near to unchanged note, whilst the New York market opened the day trading to the north of par from the outset. Both markets quickly made gains with support to trend firmer through the remainder of the early morning session in limited trade volume to start the day. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market continued to trend in a firmer direction, where buyers buoyed the market higher in the absence of sellers, the day tracked quickly higher to trigger buy stops along the way, with limited liquidity aiding in the firmer trajectory, as the geopolitical arena continues to influence commodities, while the firmer Brazil Real likely leading to less producer selling activity and assisting in the firmer market on the day.  This firmer action continued in both the New York and London markets as the day progressed.  The upward moment in New York in a market lacking any selling action continued through to the late afternoon session. The New York market encountered a slight degree of resistance late in the day to limit the gains with the market settling on a very firm note and most of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market set a new high for the day during the late afternoon session before being capped to drop back marginally and settle on a firm note, near to the highs of the day’s trading range.

The London market ended the day on a firmer note, with 78.95% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note with 94.94% of the earlier gains of the day intact.  This firmer close for the markets, with both the New York and London markets trading in firmer territory to settle near to the highs of the day in a comparatively good volume day, with the speculative sector at the helm, might see the markets set for a buoyant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: