Coffee Market Report

The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority UCDA have reported that their country’s coffee exports for the month of June were 33,467 bags or 6.31% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 563,832 bags.

Uganda Robusta exports registered a 10.22% increase when compared to the same month last year, to total 489,597 bags and Arabica exports registered a comparative 13.84% decrease when compared to the same month last year to total 74,235 bags exported in June 2023. The UCDA also reports that the cumulative exports for the first nine months of the current October 2022 to September 2023 coffee year to be 99,488 bags or 2.33% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 4,171,936 bags. The UCDA have reported that during the month of June, the overall value of coffee exports has been seen to have increased by 8.08% when compared to the same month in the previous year, to total 90.56 million US Dollars.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 2,937 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 541,266 bags, with 98.63% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 533,827 bags and the remaining 1.37% being held in the USA at a total 7,439. Of this, a total 165,173 bags, or 30.52% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 64.77% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.

The September 2023 to September 2023 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday to register this at 41.45 usc/Lb. This equates to 26.52% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

It was an overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the leading in influence Oil markets firmer on the day. The New York Arabica Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Sugar, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Platinum markets ended the day on a positive note, while the London Robusta Coffee market ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.302 Sterling, at 1.122 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.811 Brazil Real.

The New York market started the day yesterday trading to the south of par on a modest softer note, while the London market started the day yesterday trading to the north of par. Both markets were seen to oscillate around par for the remainder of the early morning session. The New York market attracted some degree of buying support to see the market trend in a firmer direction during the late morning session, with the London market following suit. As the afternoon progressed the markets hit a ceiling to limit the gains for the day. The New York market attracted fresh selling activity late in the day, to see the market trend back towards par, where the market was seen to settle on a modest firmer note. The London market dropped below par but was seen to rebound from the lows of the day to recover some of the earlier losses and settle on a softer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 57.14% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modest positive note with 23.26% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets does little to indicate direction, with the New York market dropping back from the modest highs of the day to settle on a near to unchanged note towards the close, and the London market retaining some of the earlier losses of the day, one might think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT             NEW YORK USC/LB.

SEP      2532 – 20                                    SEP     156.30 + 0.50
NOV    2393 – 13                                    DEC    156.45 + 0.80
JAN     2326 – 5                                      MAR   157.30 + 0.90
MAR   2292 – 5                                      MAY   158.50 + 0.95
MAY   2275 – 3                                      JUL     159.55 + 1.05
JUL     2263 – 3                                      SEP     160.75 + 1.15
SEP     2254 – 3                                      DEC    162.30 + 1.40
NOV   2251 – 3                                      MAR   163.30 + 1.65