Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund decrease their net short position by 7.23% within this market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 29th. August 2023; to register a new net short position at 32,455 Lots. The longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position by 3.31% within the market, to register a new net long position of 44,635 Lots on the day.
Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative decreased their net short position by 10.94% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 29th. August 2023: to register a new net short position of 27,890 lots, which is the equivalent of 7,906,691 bags. This net short position has most likely been little changed following the period of overall sideways trade that has since followed.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to remain unchanged yesterday, due to the Labour Day holiday on the U.S.A, to register these stocks at 483,383 bags, with 98.41% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 474,745 bags and the remaining 1.59% being held in the USA at a total 8,683. Of this, a total 130,432 bags, or 26.98% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 68.02% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.
The November 2023 to December 2023 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 39.27 usc/Lb. This equates to 25.86% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.
The commodity markets lacked the participation of many of the U.S.A based markets yesterday, which were closed due to the Labour Day holiday on Monday the 4th September, to provide no direction for the overall macro commodity index for the day. The London Robusta Coffee, Sugar, Gold and Palladium market ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.262 Sterling, at 1.079 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.937 Brazil Real.
The London market trading solo for the day yesterday, started the day trading on a firmer note setting a high for the day early, the market quickly attracted selling pressure to see the market drop back and set on a softer path for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed, the London market would hit a floor to limit the losses for the day albeit under light trade volumes. The London market was seen to gain momentum and support to trend back towards par towards the close, this saw the market recover all of the earlier losses to settle on a modest near to unchanged firmer note at the close.
The London market ended the day yesterday on a modest negative positive with 5.26% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day Friday on a negative note with 91.22% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This modest near to unchanged close for the London market, was somewhat expected and does little to indicate direction for the day, to possibly see the markets set for a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set in London yesterday and on in New York on Friday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
Close: 04/09/2023 Close: 01/09/2023
NOV 2483 + 1 DEC 151.90 – 2.60
JAN 2391 + 8 MAR 153.25 – 2.40
MAR 2334 + 6 MAY 154.20 – 2.40
MAY 2313 + 7 JUL 154.75 – 2.40
JUL 2206 + 8 SEP 155.20 – 2.40
SEP 2306 + 9 DEC 156.15 – 2.45
NOV 2298 + 9 MAR 157.35 – 2.35
JAN 2287 + 4 MAY 158.45 – 2.35
