Coffee Market Report

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil Cecafé have reported that the countries green coffee exports for the month of August were 33.17% higher than the same month last year, to total 3.35 million bags, this number made up of 2.65 million bags of arabica coffee up 11.20% from the same month last year and 698,856 bags of Conilon robusta coffee, up 442% from the same month last year.

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé have also reported the cumulative exports of green coffee for the first two months of the current July 2023 to June 2024 Brazil coffee year, to be 28.22% higher, when compared to the same time in the previous coffee year, at a total of 6.05 million bags.

The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 96.87% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees as at 13th. September 2023. This compared with the same period last year, and a harvest of 97.82% of the new crop, Cooxupe expect to receive 8.30 million bags of coffee from farmers this harvest, of which the cooperative expects coffee exports to be 11.11% higher than the previous year, this they foresee to reach 6.60 million bags. Thus, the new July 2023 to June 2024 crop harvest, which is estimated at a median 43.50 arabica coffee, is all but complete.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to remain unchanged yesterday, to register these stocks at 442,548 bags, with 98.33% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 435,190 bags and the remaining 1.67% being held in the USA at a total 7,358 Bags. Of this, a total 117,092 bags, or 26.46% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 72.34% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.
The November 2023 to December 2023 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 39.50 usc/Lb. This equates to 25.99% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the leading in influence Oil markets softer on the day as the US Dollar firmed against a basket of other currencies. The London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Wheat and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, while the New York Arabica Coffee, Gold, Silver, Sugar, and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.249 Sterling, at 1.075 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.916 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the north of par on a modest softer note respectively, both markets continued to oscillate to either side of par during the early morning session. The late morning session saw the New York market pressured lower by selling in the market, with the London market following suit to likewise track south from the mid-morning highs. As the afternoon progressed the markets set a comparatively narrow range, to limit the losses for the day and see the markets rebound from the low. The New York market recovered most of the earlier losses to settle on a near to unchanged note at the close, while the London buoyed by support carried most of the gains through to settle on a firmer note at the close, near to the highs of the day.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 90.74% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modest near to unchanged negative note with 5% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets does little to indicate direction nor does it inspire confidence, albeit that the New York market recovered most of the earlier losses to settle on a near to unchanged note at the close, thus one might think that the markets are due for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

NOV   2479 + 49                                         DEC    151.95 – 0.05
JAN    2362 + 26                                         MAR   153.15 Unch
MAR  2299 + 16                                         MAY    154.05 – 0.15
MAY  2276 + 13                                         JUL      154.65 – 0.20
JUL    2268 + 10                                         SEP      155.05 – 0.20
SEP    2262 + 8                                           DEC     156.15 – 0.10
NOV  2258 + 6                                           MAR    157.60 + 0.05
JAN   2255 + 5                                           MAY    158.85 + 0.25