Market Reports

Latest news from the political arena, report that USA has implemented a 25% tariff on all Mexican imports. Trade agreements and tariff alteration may have significant consequences for Mexican exports to the United States. The United States in the primary market for Mexican coffee exports and these newly implemented tariffs could raise prices for USA consumers. Of all Mexico coffee exports over 55% or around 1 million bags of coffee go to this market, which contributes around 4.50% of all coffee imported to the USA. The respected United States Department of Agriculture USDA Global Agricultural Information Network have reported that over the October 2024 to September 2025 Coffee marketing year, the Mexican new crop, will be total of 3.85 million bags, this made up of 3.35 million bags arabica coffee and 500,000 bags robusta coffee. While the report indicated domestic consumption at 2.75 bags thus releasing only a limited amount of coffee to enter the consumer markets. Exports from Mexico are reflected as 1.65 million bags green coffee along with 900,000 bags soluble value add production.

The analysts Safras & Mercado have come forth to report that Brazil coffee farmers have sold around 88% of the estimated total production of 66.04 million bags from this current Brazil coffee crop, which would indicate that thus far 58.11 million bags of coffee have been sold. The pace of sale is well ahead of the same time last year, where this was recorded at 76%. This supported by the surge in exports reflected for the first seven months of the current coffee year at a record 27.45 million bags. For the first seven months of the current year, Brazil coffee exports are made up of 22.05 million bags of arabica coffee up 7.66% from the same time last year, 5.41 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee, an increase of 22.12% versus the same time last year. The value added and soluble sector reported over the same six months to be 2.70 million bags, a 30.43% increase when compared the same seven months in the previous coffee year. One might comment that much of this selling activity frontloaded, due to various activities to include the need to bring coffees into the EU prior to the EUDR start date, which has now been delayed as well as the commercialisation of coffees early in the season due to good producer prices. The situation is now that internal prices continue to rise and producer price expectations remain high, leading to a slow measured sales of what little coffee remains ahead of the new season.

In other coffee news, a study conducted by the Food and Chemical Toxicology journal in the United States on a sample of 49,000 respondents has revealed that coffee accounts for 70% of total caffeine consumption. Carbonated soft drinks account for 15% caffeine consumption with tea contributing 9% and energy drinks 6%. The previous study was conducted in 2011 and over the last 14 years coffees contribution to caffeine consumption in the USA has increased 15%. This with the USA are the largest consuming country, estimated in this publication at around 26 million bags of coffee per annum.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 13,762 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 791,826 bags, with 96.87% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 767,079 bags and the remaining 3.13% being held in the USA at a total 24,747 Bags. Of this, a total 508,703 bags or 64.24% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 9.70% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks posted a decrease of 9,520 bags on the day, to register 67,934 bags pending grading on the day.

The May 2025 to May 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 137.81 Usc/Lb. This equates to 35.64% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, the US Dollar dropped by over 1% with the latest round of tariff announcements from the USA issued yesterday, to include 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports to the USA, which will be implemented today. The Coffee, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Sugar and Wheat markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.269 Sterling, at 1.048 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.885 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets opened the day on a very positive note, with the markets continuing to trade in firmer territory throughout the remainder of the early morning session in limited trade volume. The New York market fell back off the highs of the morning for a brief period during the late morning session. The London market continued to trade in positive territory, making gains throughout the session. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market found support to trend in a firmer direction, where buyers returned to the floor in the absence of sellers, the day tracked higher quickly to trigger buy stops along the way. This firmer action continued in both the New York and London markets as the day progressed. The upward moment in New York in a market void of volume on the sell side, saw the market continue the upward momentum before being capped late in the day, to see the market settle on a firm note at the close with most of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market followed suit to also settle on a firm note at the close, with most of the earlier gains of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 71.88% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise very firm note, with 80.47% of the earlier gains of the day intact. The firmer close for the markets, with both the New York and London markets trading in firmer territory to settle near to the highs of the day, albeit in a modest volume day. With the speculative sector at the helm and technical moves in play, the markets might be in for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: