Market Reports

The International Coffee Organisation ICO have reported that the global coffee exports for the month of January were 13.30% lower than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 10.83 million bags. This has contributed to the cumulative global coffee exports for the first four months of the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year to be 4.90% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a reported total 42.79 million bags.

The report reflects a lower export performance from South America during January, which registered a 4.20% decrease in exports to consumer markets, when compared to the same month in the previous year, to register 5.18 million bags through to the end of January. Brazil and Colombia, the primary source of exports with Brazil reporting 0.70% decline in exports to register 3.85 million bags whilst Colombia reported 4.30% growth in exports during January 2025 in comparison to the same month last year, to register 1.11 million bags exported.

The report confirms a decline in exports from Asia as Vietnam, India and Indonesia cumulatively registered 31.90% decrease in exports, when compared to the same month in the previous year to total 3.44 million bags, largely led by a decrease in exports of 43.80% from Vietnam during the month of January. Within the ICO report, exports posted an increase by 7.10% year on year from Africa to a total 1.10 million bags, with the main contributor of the increase in exports during the month of January, Uganda and Ivory Coast with combined exports from these two origins registering 28.10% higher year on year at 630,000 bags.

The ICO report similarly includes within the total global exports, the export figures, from Mexico and the traditional washed arabica Central American bloc; Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador, to report for January that exports were 10.90% higher than the same period in the previous year to total 1.10 million bags.

The International Coffee Organisation ICO are still to release their estimate for the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year but have confirmed their figure for global coffee supply at 5.83% lower than the 2022/2023 coffee year at a total of 178.00 million bags for the completed October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year. The International Coffee Organisation have likewise confirmed their global consumption figure for the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year, to have grown by 2.25% from the previous year to reach a total of 177.00 million bags. Their report therefore indicates a marginal 1 million bag supply surplus leading into the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year.

In other coffee news, advancements in biochar solutions are proving that biochar can play a key role in reducing the carbon footprint of coffee farming while also benefiting farmers. The methods applied boost quantifiable carbon removal and revitalise soil health, to promote sustainable and efficient farming. This is done by producing on farm biomass, mainly from coffee tree renovation and agroforestry system maintenance. When applied to coffee fields, biochar improves soil health and enhances fertiliser efficiency and can improve water usage.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 1,580 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 799,406 bags, with 96.74% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 773,359 bags and the remaining 3.26% being held in the USA at a total 26,047 Bags. Of this, a total 523,202 bags or 65.45% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 9.46% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks posted a decrease of 10,355 bags on the day, to register 36,352 bags pending grading on the day.

The May 2025 to May 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 140.19 Usc/Lb. This equates to 36.50% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a softer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, as global tariff concerns continue to impact sentiment, with American stock markets falling during the session yesterday to see the S&P 500 down 9% since the historical high registered on the 19th February this year. This while investors await US Consumer Price Index Data due out tomorrow. The London Robusta Coffee, Corn, Sugar and Wheat markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the New York Arabica Coffee, Cocoa, Soybean, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.289 Sterling, at 1.085 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.855 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the north of par on very firm notes respectively. The New York market continued to trend firmer early in the day, setting a new high for the session. The London market followed suit to likewise trend in a firmer direction for the remainder of the morning session albeit in modest volumes to start the day. As the afternoon progressed the London market found support to trend in a firmer direction, while the New York market dropped back from the morning session and continue to trend in a softer direction. During the late afternoon session, the London market dropped back from the earlier highs to settle on a modest near to unchanged firmer note at the close, with only some of the earlier gains of the day intact. The New York market continued a softer path to set a new low for the day before finding support near to the lows of the day to rebound and recover most of the earlier losses of the day to settle on a modest near to unchanged softer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 18.03% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modest near to unchanged softer note, with 11.27% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, albeit that the New York market recovered most of the earlier losses of the day to settle near on a modest softer note and the London market settled for the day close to unchanged might indicate some degree of consolidation to possibly see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: