Coffee Market Report
The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of October was 269,000 bags or 30.29% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,157,000 bags. This marks the first month of the new October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year, in which Colombia is forecast to potentially produce around 15.50% more than the previous year at a total of 12.60 million bags production. This is forecast, although improved year on year remains shy of the country’s average potential production of around 13.60 million bags per seasonal year.
The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have meanwhile reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of October were 38,000 bags or 4.03% lower than the same month last year, at a total 906,000 bags.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 9,640 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 337,915 bags, with 98.54% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 332,987 bags and the remaining 1.46% being held in the USA at a total 4,928 Bags. Of this, a total 84,514 bags, or 25.01% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 68.26% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.
The December 2023 to January 2024 contract arbitrage between the New York and London markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 63.80 Usc/Lb. This equates to 37.36% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.
It was a softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, as the US Dollar index strengthened by 0.3% against a basket of other currencies. A stronger US Dollar is seen to be a bearish factor for commodities traded in other currencies. The Soybean market ended the day on firmer note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.228 Sterling, at 1.069 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.872 Brazil Real.
The New York market started the day yesterday trading to the south of par, whilst the London market started the day yesterday trading to the north of par on a firmer note. The markets oscillated around par for the remainder of the early morning session, before attracting some degree of selling pressure to see both the New York and London markets drop below par and trend softer during the morning session. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market found support to trend firmer from the earlier lows, this saw the market hit a ceiling for the day to limit the gains and drop back towards par during the afternoon session. The London was seen to drop lower, pressured by selling activity. The New York market was seen to settle into a range during the late afternoon session, to see the market close on a softer note, while the London market continued to trend softer to settle near to the lows of the day on a negative note at the close.
The London market ended the day on a negative note with 80% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 64.84% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the markets, with both the New York and London markets settling near to the lows of the day in softer territory, does little to indicate direction and one might therefore think that the markets are due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
JAN 2358 – 64 DEC 170.75 – 2.95
MAR 2321 – 40 MAR 169.50 – 2.20
MAY 2303 – 32 MAY 169.85 – 2.30
JUL 2286 – 26 JUL 170.65 – 2.30
SEP 2277 – 22 SEP 171.50 – 2.20
NOV 2268 – 21 DEC 172.75 – 2.10
JAN 2255 – 24 MAR 174.55 – 2.05
MAR 2245 – 24 MAY 175.45 – 2.05
Kind Regards,
Michael
