Coffee Market Report
| The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 11.53% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 21st November 2023: to register a new long position of 12,499 lots, which is the equivalent of 3,543,411 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed following the period of mixed but overall, firmer sideways trade that has since followed.
The European Coffee Federation, E.C.F. have reported that the port warehouse coffee stocks held within reporting warehouses in Belgium, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, to have registered a 9.37% decrease during the month of October 2023 to total 8,440,183 bags at the end of the month. The stocks are reported as 2,974,533 bags robusta coffee, 2,055,583 bags natural arabica coffee (Including Brazil semi-washed) and 3,410,067 bags washed arabica coffee. These stocks do not include necessarily include the privately held, unreported stocks from the industry, onsite inventory, nor the in-transit bulk container stocks and the stocks being held within non-reporting warehouses throughout Europe. The combination of EU27 countries consumption is put somewhere in the region of 950,000 bags of coffee a week. One might anticipate additional stock not included in the report, when considering the privately held stocks in European consumer countries, which could contribute to as much as 1.50 million bags to the reported stocks. An estimate therefore that as at the end of October 2023 European coffee stocks might have been close to the equivalent of ten weeks of European roasting demand and near to the lowest levels seen since 2013. The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to remain unchanged yesterday, to register these stocks at 290,734 bags, with 98.30% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 285,806 bags and the remaining 1.70% being held in the USA at a total 4,928 Bags. Of this, a total 56,799 bags, or 19.54% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 72.65% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 22,014 bags pending grading on the day. The January 2024 to March 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday to register this at 53.57 Usc/Lb. This equates to 31.69% price discount for the London Robusta coffee. It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, with signals in the market that the US Federal Reserve will hold rates in December, and a neutral outlook for this leading economy’s fiscal policy stance in the first quarter of 2024. The Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on firmer note, while the Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.263 Sterling, at 1.095 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.896 Brazil Real. The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the south of par on softer notes respectively. The markets fell back further during the morning session, pressured by selling in the market before reversing the trend during the late morning session to attract some degree of buying support, this saw the markets track towards par, for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed, both the New York and the London markets were seen to hit a ceiling, limiting the gains for the day. The markets pressured by selling, dropped back from the day’s highs to trend back towards par. In latter day trade, both markets settled into a narrow range. The New York continued to oscillate around par to settle on a firmer note, while the London market followed suit, to maintain some of the earlier gains and settle on a likewise modest firmer note at the close. The London market ended the day on a modest near to unchanged positive note with 5.26% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise modest positive note with 20.69% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This follow through modest firmer close for the markets, albeit that the New York and London markets fell back from the earlier highs of the day to settle near to unchanged at the close, might indicate some degree of follow through direction to possibly see the markets set for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB. JAN 2546 + 1 MAR 169.05 + 0.90 |
