Coffee Market Report

The National Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (ICAFE) have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of December were 6.87% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 38,430 bags. This they say has contributed to the cumulative coffee exports for the first three months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 21.80% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 76,681 bags. The National Coffee Institute of Costa Rica ICAFE, have estimated production for the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year will total 1.30 million bags or 13% lower than the previous coffee year, this is primarily attributed to unfavourable weather during development as well as a lack of pickers during harvest time.

 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 3,734 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 256,380 bags, with 97.87% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 250,929 bags and the remaining 2.13% being held in the USA at a total 5,451 Bags. Of this, a total 52,890 bags, or 20.63% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 61.84% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile, an increase of 14,213 bags in the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 37,379 bags pending grading on the day.

 

The March 2024 to March 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 51.11 Usc/Lb. This equates to 27.76% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

 

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, as the markets look towards key U.S. inflation data due to be released later this week, which could provide more insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.270 Sterling, at 1.093 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.907 Brazil Real.

 

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading north of par on firmer notes respectively. This support continued throughout the early morning session, with both markets tracking firmer as the day progressed, before attracting some degree of selling pressure to see the markets limit the gains for the early morning session. As the afternoon progressed the New York market fell back from the early highs of the day to hit a floor, limit the losses and see the market track back upward as speculative buying support returned to the floor. The New York and London markets continued to gain momentum to rally late in the day around the opening of business day in the Americas’, light volumes of trade, both markets continued to move in a firmer direction accentuating the gains for the day. The upward momentum brought sellers back to the floor at the top of the day, and the New York market hit a ceiling very late in the day to limit the sessions gains. The New York market settled on a firmer note at the close, while the London market dropped back from the highs to likewise settle on a firmer note at the close.

 

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 57.31% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day trading on a likewise positive note with 50.47% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close for the markets, with the New York and London markets tracking upward throughout the session to maintain more than half of the earlier gains of the day, one might think that the markets are possibly set for a steady follow through start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.

 

MAR    2932 + 47                                MAR   184.10 + 2.70

MAY   2830 + 40                                MAY   182.05 + 2.40

JUL      2758 + 41         JUL     182.30 + 2.20

SEP      2708 + 39             SEP      183.05 + 2.25

NOV   2679 + 37         DEC    184.15 + 2.20

JAN    2653 + 37       MAR     185.75 + 2.10

MAR    2643 + 37    MAY       186.65 + 2.05

MAY     2630 + 34                               JUL         187.50 + 2.00