Coffee Market Report

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 1,686 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 258,066 bags, with 97.89% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 252,615 bags and the remaining 2.11% being held in the USA at a total 5,451 Bags. Of this, a total 52,890 bags, or 20.49% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 61.43% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was, meanwhile, a decrease of 2,657 bags in the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 34,722 bags pending grading on the day.

The March 2024 to March 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 47.34 Usc/Lb. This equates to 26.13% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was an overall positive day for the commodity markets yesterday, ahead of the leading consumer market consumer price support, to be released later today. It was a softer close for Arabica Coffee, Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Sugar and a positive close on the day for London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Cotton, Soybean, Wheat, and Palladium markets. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.276 Sterling, at 1.098 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.892 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading south of par on a mildly softer note. The softer track in New York met with early morning buying activity to provide a short-term boost, albeit in limited volume. The news of decent rainfall across the Brazil coffee belt dampening speculative sentiment in the arabica market, as the weather for the developing 2024/25 crop remains a focus. The New York market moved lower into mid-session, where the direction settled to maintain a rangebound stance, as the afternoon progressed toward the close. The prevailing London Robusta market continues to reflect a squeeze in new crop Vietnam robusta coffee supply, and is weighted toward buying activity, with only limited producer seller participation against the exchange. The inversion in both futures markets continues to limit physical trade manoeuvrability, while the reluctance of well financed farmers in the first and second largest coffee producer countries, Brazil and Vietnam, continues to buoy the markets. The London market held the gains on the day and on a firmer trajectory as the afternoon progressed, to see the close in this market off the days’ high, in positive territory.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 28.57% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day trading on a negative note with 79.73% of the earlier gains of the day, to set the close in both markets on a positive note in London and a steady, lower note in New York, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT             NEW YORK USC/LB.

MAR       2950 +  18                               MAR      181.15 – 2.95
MAY       2845 + 15                                MAY      178.95 – 3.10
JUL         2770 + 12                                JUL        179.15 – 3.15
SEP         2719 + 11                                SEP        179.90 – 3.15
NOV       2690 + 11                                DEC       181.10 – 3.05
JAN        2661 + 8                                  MAR      182.70 – 3.05
MAR      2644 + 1                                  MAY      183.60 – 3.05
MAY      2631 + 1                                  JUL        184.45 – 3.05