Coffee Market Report

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 1,585 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 257,478 bags, with 97.88% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 252,027 bags and the remaining 2.12% being held in the USA at a total 5,451 Bags. Of this, a total 72,070 bags, or 27.99% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 50.78% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile, an increase of 3,971 bags in the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 53,913 bags pending grading on the day.

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London Exchange were seen to decrease by 43,833 bags during the week up to the 19th January 2024, to register a total of 488,500 bags. With an estimated 429,000 bags or 87.82% of the Certified Robusta coffee stocks being Brazil Conillon.

The March 2024 to March 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 43.98 Usc/Lb. This equates to 23.21% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, as the US Dollar index weakened by 0.40% on the day, Greenback volatility continues ahead of key US economic data due to be released tomorrow. A weaker US Dollar is seen to be a bullish factor for commodities traded in other currencies. The London Robusta Coffee, Oil, Cocoa, Corn, Sugar, Wheat, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, while the New York Arabica Coffee, Soybean and Gold markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.271 Sterling, at 1.088 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.934 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading in firmer territory, making gains during the early morning session to see both markets set a high for the day. The New York and London markets saw gains limited during the morning session as the markets were capped to attract a degree of selling pressure. As the afternoon progressed, the markets started to see selling pressure build, to see both the New York and the London markets drop back from the earlier highs and trend in a softer direction. This saw the New York market quickly drop back below par, accentuating the losses for the day. The London market followed suit albeit in a more sedate manner to drop back from the highs of the morning and settle on a firmer note albeit with only some of the gains of the day intact. The New York market continued to trade softer towards the close to settle on a softer note, with most of the earlier losses of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 36.23% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note with 72.16% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This follow through mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling on a firm note albeit back from the highs of the day and the New York market settling near to the lows of the day, does little to inspire confidence and one might think that the markets are due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

MAR   3207 + 25                                        MAR   189.45 – 3.50
MAY   3049 + 32                                        MAY   186.20 – 0.80
JUL     2937 + 33                                        JUL     185.45 – 0.35
SEP     2856 + 26                                        SEP     185.50 – 0.40
NOV   2814 + 23                                        DEC    186.45 – 0.50
JAN    2785 + 22                                        MAR   187.70 – 0.65
MAR  2770 + 22                                        MAY    188.10 – 0.60
MAY  2755 + 22                                        JUL      188.40 – 0.60