Coffee Market Report
The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of January was 91,000 bags or 10.48% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 959,000 bags. The National Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee production for the first four months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 821,000 bags or 26.21% higher the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 4,618,000 bags.
The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have meanwhile reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of January were 103,000 bags or 12.37% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 935,000 bags. The National Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee exports for first four months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year are 72,000 bags or 1.76% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 3,998,000 bags.
Vietnamese coffee farmers and exporters have been off the field of play this week, as they celebrate Tet New Year which has brought in the Year of the Dragon. The Tet New Year holiday began on the 10th February 2024 and is due to be complete later this week. This traditionally sees trade muted for the week.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 7,920 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 288,745 bags, with 98.34% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 283,940 bags and the remaining 1.66% being held in the USA at a total 4,805 Bags. Of this, a total 93,452 bags, or 32.36% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 44.01% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile, no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 65,114 bags pending grading on the day.
The March 2024 to March 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 43.14 Usc/Lb. This equates to 22.92% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.
It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, as the US Dollar index weakened by 0.30% on the day, A weaker US Dollar is seen to be a bullish factor for commodities traded in other currencies. The London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, the Sugar market remained unchanged on the day, while the New York Arabica Coffee and Corn markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.261 Sterling, at 1.076 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.963 Brazil Real.
The New York market started the day yesterday trading on a modest near to unchanged softer note, while the London market started the day trading on a firmer note making gains throughout the early morning session. The New York market quickly attracted a degree of selling pressure to move lower during the morning session, while the London market followed suit albeit in a more sedate manner to oscillate around par for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed, the markets started to see buying support build, with the arrivals of the Americas at the start of their day. The London market continued a firmer path, triggering buying activity to see the market build and hit a ceiling late in the day, limiting the day’s gains to see the market drop back from the highs of the day and settle on a modest firmer note at the close. The New York market continued to trade in softer territory throughout the early afternoon session before finding support during the mid-afternoon session to rebound from the earlier lows, recovering more than half of the day’s losses to settle on a softer note at the close.
The London market ended the day on a positive note with 29.41% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note with 33.33% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling on a modest firm note and the New York market recovering more than half of the earlier losses might provide some degree of follow through confidence to see the markets possibly set for a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
MAR 3198 + 10 MAR 188.20 – 1.30
MAY 3096 + 28 MAY 185.10 – 1.60
JUL 3017 + 29 JUL 184.35 – 1.45
SEP 2943 + 32 SEP 184.40 – 1.40
NOV 2886 + 35 DEC 184.85 – 1.45
JAN 2854 + 38 MAR 185.50 – 1.60
MAR 2829 + 36 MAY 185.60 – 1.75
MAY 2812 + 36 JUL 185.50 – 1.95
