Coffee Market Report
One of Brazil’s prominent and respected coffee exporters Comexim has come forth to forecast that the July 2024 to June 2025 Brazil coffee new crop shall be 2.13% larger than the current July 2023 to June 2024 Brazil coffee crop, to potentially see this new coffee crop come in at 67.15 million bags. This figure made up of 45.15 million bags arabica coffee, up 3.70% from the previous year and 22 million bags robusta coffee, marginally down by 0.90% from the previous year. The report has also forecast that coffee exports to come from the new Brazil crop, are estimated to be marginally higher than the current Brazil July 2023 to June 2024 crop, at an estimated total of 45 million bags.
The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of December were 794,617 bags or 91.02% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 78,427 bags. This contributes to the islands cumulative robusta coffee exports for the first nine months of the current April 2023 to March 2024 coffee year to be 2,543,764 bags or 57.47% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 1,882,755 bags.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 740 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 249,829 bags, with 98.04% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 244,928 bags and the remaining 1.96% being held in the USA at a total 4,901 Bags. Of this, a total 65,448 bags, or 26.18% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 50.94% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile, an increase of 20,725 bags to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 87,636 bags pending grading on the day.
The March 2024 to March 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 44.14 Usc/Lb. This equates to 22.75% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.
It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, as the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged during the first policy meeting for 2024, which concluded yesterday. The New York Arabica Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Gold and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, while the London Robusta Coffee, Sugar, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.268 Sterling, at 1.080 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.953 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a firmer notes respectively, carrying through support from the close on Tuesday. A continuation for both markets through the early morning session oscillating between par and mildly positive in early trade. As the day progressed, a firmer trend built as activity increased in New York. As the afternoon progressed the markets fell back from the earlier highs of the morning trending back towards par. The New York market rebounded from the lows during the late afternoon session which likewise saw the London market follow suit, before being capped to limit the gains for the day and see the market drop back from the earlier highs to encounter a large degree of resistance and move below par, the market continued on a softer trajectory during the late afternoon session to settle near to the lows of the day at the close. The New York market dropped back from the highs of the day, to see the market settle near to unchanged on a modest positive note at the close.
The London market ended the day on a negative note with 70.45% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modest near to unchanged positive note with 3.22% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This mixed close but overall softer close for the markets, with the London market retaining most of the earlier losses and the New York market settling near to unchanged for the day does little to inspire confidence and one might think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
MAR 3305 – 31 MAR 194.05 + 0.05
MAY 3168 – 13 MAY 190.95 + 0.70
JUL 3057 + 4 JUL 189.90 + 0.65
SEP 2962 + 13 SEP 189.45 + 0.50
NOV 2906 + 24 DEC 189.35 – 0.15
JAN 2874 + 32 MAR 189.70 – 0.45
MAR 2855 + 32 MAY 189.80 – 0.55
MAY 2838 + 32 JUL 189.90 – 0.55
