Coffee Market Report
| With the month of February almost complete and shipment statistics already at hand, the Vietnam General Statistics office have estimated that the coffee exports for the month are reported as 20.10% lower than the same month last year, at a total of approximately 2,666,667 bags. The February 2024 export performance is anticipated to result in the countries coffee exports for the first five months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 3.96% higher than the same period last year, at a total of 12,755,017 bags. The General Statistics office of Vietnam have at the same time estimated that the value of the country’s coffee exports for the first two months of the current calendar year, shall be 67.50% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of approximately 1.25 billion US Dollars.
While the provisional export statistics provided by Vietnam authorities for February report a comparative drop in exports for the month of February year on year, one might attribute this in part to the low period of activity within the interior over the festive Tet Lunar New Year, which was observed in this month, this year, and not in January as in 2023. The certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York Exchange continue to register gradual daily increases, climbing from more than twenty-year lows recorded earlier in the year, to register a still comparatively low 342,766 bags yesterday. This marks a drawdown of 451,809 bags or 56.86% from the same time last year when the certified washed arabica coffee stocks registered 794,575 bags on 28th February 2023. These daily released figures are received by the speculative sector of the markets, as an indication of arabica coffee availability, or lack thereof, in the consumer markets where these exchange certified coffee stocks are held. These certified stocks stored in consumer country warehouses, are usually stored for extended periods of time, and accumulate discounts which would have added incentive for price pressured roasters to draw from these comparatively less expensive certified stocks over the same time. The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market were seen to increase by 8,995 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 342,766 bags, with 98.60% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 337,961 bags and the remaining 1.40% being held in the USA at a total 4,805 Bags. Of this, a total 139,103 bags, or 40.58% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 35.07% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 17,280 bags; to register 148,747 bags pending grading on the day. The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London Exchange were seen to increase by 74,833 bags during the week up to the 26th February 2024, to register a comparatively low total of 401,500 bags. This is 1,059,000 bags or 62.08%, lower than the same time last year. The May 2024 to May 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 43.68 Usc/Lb. This equates to 24.03% price discount for the London Robusta coffee. It was a softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the US Dollar gaining momentum on the day. A stronger US Dollar is seen to be a bearish indicator for commodities traded in other currencies. The Corn, Sugar and Soybean markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.267 Sterling, at 1.083 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.968 Brazil Real. The New York market started the day yesterday trading to the south of par on a softer note, while the London market started the day trading on a firm note carrying through momentum from the close on Tuesday. The markets oscillated around par for the remainder of the early morning session, before attracting some degree of selling pressure and both New York and London markets fell below par, to trend softer during the morning session. As the afternoon progressed, speculative selling returned to the New York floor to trigger stops along the way. The floor established and buyer support returned to rebound from the earlier lows and recover some of the earlier losses. The London market followed suit to drop lower, pressured by technical selling activity. The New York market, trading in a range on the day, was pressured lower late in the day as sellers returned to the floor, this would see the market settle on a modest softer note at the close. The London market followed suit to likewise settle on a softer note at the close. The London market ended the day on a negative note with 62.26% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 49.06% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the markets, albeit that the New York and London markets recovered most of the earlier losses of the day to settle in softer territory, and one might think that the markets are due for a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB. MAY 3044 – 33 MAY 181.75 – 1.30 |
