Coffee Market Report
The International Coffee Organisation ICO have reported that the global coffee exports for the month of January were 32.20% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 12.62 million bags. This they say, has contributed to the cumulative global coffee exports for the first four months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 13.10% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 45.12 million bags.
The International Coffee Organisation ICO have maintained their forecast for global coffee supply at 5.83% lower than the previous year at a total of 178.00 million bags for the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year. The International Coffee Organisation have likewise maintained their forecast for global consumption for the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year, to grow by 2.25% from the previous year to reach a total of 177.00 million bags.
The report reflects an increase in exports from South America during January, which registered a 25.40% increase in exports when compared to the same month in the previous year, to register 5.41 million bags during January from Brazil and Colombia, with the primary source of growth seen in Brazil where green coffee exports were seen to increase by 27.70% during January. There was a likewise an increase in exports from Asia as Vietnam, India and Indonesia cumulatively registered a 47.10% increase in exports, when compared to the same month in the previous year to total 5.08 million bags during January. Within the ICO report, exports for January were seen to have increased by 6.50% year on year from Africa to a total 1.02 million bags.
The ICO report includes within the total global exports, the export figures, from Mexico and the traditional washed arabica Central American bloc; Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador, to report for January that exports were 7.70% lower than the same period in the previous year to total 1.11 million bags.
The Brazil government have reported preliminary data that illustrates the country’s green coffee exports for the month of February were 77.07% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 3,612,350 bags. The official breakdown of coffee exports by description for February will soon be released and can be anticipated to illustrate this figure more accurately.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market were seen to increase by 11,440 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 392,547 bags, with 98.92% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 388,292 bags and the remaining 1.08% being held in the USA at a total 4,255 Bags. Of this, a total 186,113 bags, or 47.41% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 30.44% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 510 bags; to register 161,465 bags pending grading on the day.
The May 2024 to May 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 36.21 Usc/Lb. This equates to 19.44% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.
It was a very firm day on the commodity markets yesterday, as an address by the US Federal Reserve Chair indicated that the prevailing interest rate in the leading USA Consumer market, that is set at 5.50% could be trimmed toward the middle of this year. The US Dollar was weaker on the day, with the leading in influence Oil markets firmer on the day. A weaker US Dollar is seen to be a bullish factor for commodities traded in other currencies. The Coffee, Corn, Sugar, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.274 Sterling, at 1.090 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.944 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday carrying through momentum from the close on Monday, to see the markets oscillate to the north of par during the early morning session. The markets continued to trade to either side of par for the remainder of the morning session before support was seen to build to see the markets moving above par and trend in a firmer direction during the late morning session. As the afternoon progressed, the New York and London markets started to gain momentum, with both markets moving in a positive direction accentuating the gains for the day, under relatively modest volumes for the day. The upward momentum brought sellers back to the floor at the top of the day, and both New York and London markets hit a ceiling very late in the day to marginally limit the sessions gains. The New York market settled near to the highs of the day on a very firm note, while the London market followed suit to likewise settle on a very firm note, near to the highs of the day.
The London market ended the day on a positive note with 87.16% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note with 76.62% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This very firm close for the markets, with both the New York and London markets tracking upward throughout the session to settle near to the highs, could possibly see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
MAY 3309 + 129 MAY 186.30 + 2.95
JUL 3214 + 114 JUL 184.00 + 2.60
SEP 3133 + 107 SEP 183.45 + 2.60
NOV 3041 + 104 DEC 183.15 + 2.50
JAN 2962 + 92 MAR 183.10 + 2.35
MAR 2922 + 86 MAY 183.15 + 2.30
MAY 2896 + 86 JUL 182.85 + 2.25
JUL 2875 + 86 SEP 182.25 + 2.15
