Coffee Market Report

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund increase their net long position by 8.55% within this market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 12th March 2024; to register a new long position at 47,069 Lots. The longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position by 1.89% within the market, to register a new net long position of 53,019 Lots on the day.

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative marginally increased their net long position by 4.24% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 12th March 2024: to register a new net long position of 34,029 lots, which is the equivalent of 9,647,071 bags. This net long position has most likely been marginally decreased following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market were seen to increase by 27,708 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 516,386 bags, with 99.18% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 512,131 bags and the remaining 0.82% being held in the USA at a total 4,255 Bags. Of this, a total 270,168 bags, or 52.32% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 22.81% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 24,588 bags; to register 154,630 bags pending grading on the day.

The May 2024 to May 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 30.12 Usc/Lb. This equates to 16.57% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, as investors awaited a series of central bank meetings this week, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday regarding interest rates. The London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Wheat and Gold markets ended the day on a positive note, while the New York Arabica Coffee, Corn, Soybean, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.272 Sterling, at 1.087 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.030 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the south of par on softer notes respectively. The markets both found support during the early morning trade to trend in a firmer direction. This support continued throughout the early morning session to see the markets trend firmer before hitting a ceiling to set a new high for the day. As the afternoon progressed, both the New York and London markets fell back from the earlier highs to trade towards par. The New York market fell below par, pressured lower by selling in the market, whilst the London market followed suit albeit in a more sedate manner. The New York market continued a softer path for the remainder of the day before finding support near to the lows, late in the day to rebound and settle on a softer note. The London market rebounded from the modest lows to gain momentum towards the close and settle on a firmer note in limited volume of trade on the day.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 50% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note with 77.42% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This follow through mixed close for the markets, with the New York market settling near to the lows of the day and the London market maintaining half of the earlier gains might see the markets set for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

MAY    3343 + 35                                       MAY     181.75 – 1.20
JUL      3245 + 34                                       JUL       180.60 – 1.05
SEP      3172 + 33                                       SEP       180.25 – 1.10
NOV    3094 + 32                                       DEC      179.85 – 1.20
JAN     3031 + 32                                       MAR     180.00 – 1.25
MAR    2982 + 31                                      MAY     180.30 – 1.20
MAY    2927 + 5                                        JUL       180.30 – 1.15
JUL      2862 – 37                                      SEP       180.25 – 1.05