Coffee Market Report
The International Coffee Organisation ICO have reported that the global coffee exports for the month of February were 9.56% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 10.43 million bags. This they say, has contributed to the cumulative global coffee exports for the first five months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 11.70% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 50.82 million bags.
The International Coffee Organisation ICO have maintained their forecast for global coffee supply at 5.83% lower than the previous year at a total of 178 million bags for the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year. The International Coffee Organisation have likewise maintained their forecast for global consumption for the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year, to grow by 2.25% from the previous year to reach a total of 177.00 million bags. This growth anticipated to come from mainly immature coffee consumer markets, as well as foreseen increases to come from local consumption in producer countries, such as Vietnam.
The report reflects an increase in exports from South America during February, which registered a 41.70% increase in exports to consumer markets, when compared to the same month in the previous year, to register 4.93 million bags through to the end of February. Brazil and Colombia, the primary source of exports whereas Brazil led the way in green coffee exports that are reported to have registered a positive increase of 51% in comparison to the same month last year. There was a comparatively a decrease in exports from Asia as Vietnam, India and Indonesia cumulatively registered a 17.00% decrease in exports, when compared to the same month in the previous year to total 3.97 million bags during February. Within the ICO report, exports for February were seen to have increased by 14.60% year on year from Africa to a total 980,000 bags. The leading country within Africa to contribute toward the total exports from the continent, Uganda with exports registering at 430,000 bags for the month of February.
The ICO report similarly includes within the total global exports, the export figures, from Mexico and the traditional washed arabica Central American bloc; Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador, to report for February that exports were 2.70% lower than the same period in the previous year to total 1.45 million bags.
The Brazil government have reported preliminary data that illustrates the country’s green coffee exports for the month of March were 27.37% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 3,472,183 bags. The official breakdown of coffee exports by description for March will soon be released and can be anticipated to illustrate this figure more accurately.
The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of March was 67,000 bags or 8.38% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 866,000 bags. The National Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee production for the first six months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 824,000 bags or 14.66% higher the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 6,445,000 bags.
The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have meanwhile reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of March were 103,000 bags or 11.36% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,010,000 bags. The National Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee exports for first six months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year are 148,000 bags or 2.51% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 6,054,000 bags.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market were seen to increase by 11,535 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 628,217 bags, with 99.67% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 626,132 bags and the remaining 0.33% being held in the USA at a total 2,085 Bags. Of this, a total 325,622 bags, or 51.83% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 18.30% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 14,250 bags; to register 59,638 bags pending grading on the day.
The May 2024 to May 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 35.93 Usc/Lb. This equates to 17.38% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.
It was mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, ahead of key US economic data due out later today, which may provide further cues on possible interest rate cuts to come. The New York Arabica Coffee, Corn, Sugar, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, the Silver market remained unchanged on the day, while the London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa Corn, Wheat and Gold markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.263 Sterling, at 1.082 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.059 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest firmer note. A continuation through the early morning session oscillating between par and mildly positive in early trade. As the day progressed, the markets were seen to drop back from the early highs and tend back towards par and into negative territory. The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day saw the New York market recover from the mid-morning lows, to trend back towards par. The London market followed suit, albeit in a more sedate manner. The New York market continued in a firmer manner for the remainder of the day’s session, under good volumes of trade before being capped late in the day to drop back and settle on a firmer note at the close. The London market was seen to continue to trade lower towards the close, to see the market settle on a softer note at the close, albeit recovering from the lows of the early morning session.
The London market ended the on a negative note with 59.74% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a firm note, with 72.41% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the New York market dropping back from the earlier highs of the day towards the close, might indicate some degree of consolidation post the significant gains made earlier in the week, to possibly see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
MAY 3766 – 46 MAY 206.75 + 3.15
JUL 3698 – 29 JUL 205.80 + 3.00
SEP 3604 – 25 SEP 205.00 + 2.90
NOV 3504 – 16 DEC 204.15 + 2.90
JAN 3410 – 2 MAR 204.10 + 2.95
MAR 3329 + 5 MAY 203.80 + 2.95
MAY 3265 + 5 JUL 203.05 + 2.75
JUL 3183 + 7 SEP 202.05 + 2.50
