Coffee Market Report

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market were seen to increase by 7,618 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 667,376 bags, with 99.72% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 665,539 bags and the remaining 0.28% being held in the USA at a total 1,837 Bags. Of this, a total 310,118 bags, or 46.47% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 17.14% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 6,243 bags; to register 80,020 bags pending grading on the day.

The July 2024 to July 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 35.56 Usc/Lb. This equates to 16.46% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, as the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a widely expected move at the culmination of the policy forum yesterday. The Soybean, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, the Soybean market was little changed on the day, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Sugar and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.247 Sterling, at 1.065 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.194 Brazil Real.

The New York market started the day trading to the south of par on a modest softer note, while the London market started the day trading to the north of par on a firmer note. Both the New York and London markets quickly gained support to trend in a firmer direction during the early morning session, before encountering resistance to drop back from the morning highs. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market gained momentum, buoyed higher by support, with the London market following suit to set a comparatively narrow range for the day.

The markets were seen to hit a ceiling for the day, encountering resistance to drop back from the highs of the day and trend back towards par. The markets continued to trade lower, accentuating the losses for the day, in good volumes of trade. The London market was seen to decline through technical chart levels, pressured by speculative selling activity. The New York market was seen to settle into a range during the late afternoon session, to see the market close recover most of the earlier losses and settle on a modest near to unchanged softer note. While the London market continued to trend softer, before finding support near to the lows of the day, to recover some of the earlier losses and settle on a softer note at the close.

The London market ended the on a negative note with 67.19% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note, with 16.67% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the markets, albeit that both the New York and London markets recovered most of the earlier losses of the day, with the US Dollar index losing some ground against a basket of other currencies throughout the day’s session, one might think that the markets are due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

JUL     3978 – 43                                           JUL    216.00 – 0.65
SEP     3908 – 32                                           SEP    214.05 – 0.75
NOV   3819 – 32                                           DEC   212.00 – 1.00
JAN    3707 – 31                                           MAR  211.40 – 1.15
MAR  3616 – 36                                           MAY  210.35 – 1.20
MAY  3560 – 36                                           JUL    209.15 – 1.20
JUL    3490 – 36                                           SEP    207.25 – 1.20
SEP    3425 – 36                                           DEC   205.10 – 1.15