Coffee Market Report
The International Coffee Organisation ICO have maintained their forecast for global coffee supply at 5.83% lower than the previous year at a total of 178 million bags for the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year. The International Coffee Organisation have likewise maintained their forecast for global consumption for the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year, to grow by 2.25% from the previous year to reach a total of 177.00 million bags. This growth is anticipated to come from mainly immature coffee consumer markets, as well as foreseen increases to come from local consumption in producer countries, such as Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam.
The International Coffee Organisation ICO have reported that the global coffee exports for the month of April were 16.90% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 11.97 million bags. This they say, has contributed to the cumulative global coffee exports for the first seven months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 11.10% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 80.99 million bags.
The report reflects an increase in exports from South America during April, which registered a 44.50% increase in exports to consumer markets, when compared to the same month in the previous year, to register 5.15 million bags through to the end of April. Brazil and Colombia, the primary source of exports whereas Brazil led the way in green coffee exports that are reported to have registered a positive increase of 54.80% in comparison to the same month last year. There was a comparatively a marginal decrease in exports from Asia as Vietnam, India and Indonesia cumulatively registered a 0.30% decrease in exports, when compared to the same month in the previous year to total 3.78 million bags during April. Within the ICO report, exports for April were seen to have increased by 39.40% year on year from Africa to a total 1.37 million bags.
The ICO report similarly includes within the total global exports, the export figures, from Mexico and the traditional washed arabica Central American bloc; Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador, to report for April that exports were 12.60% lower than the same period in the previous year to total 1.66 million bags.
The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of May was 314,000 bags or 38.96% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,120,000 bags. The National Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee production for the first eight months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 1,314,000 bags or 18.81% higher the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 8,298,000 bags.
The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have meanwhile reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of May were 87,000 bags or 10.28% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 933,000 bags. The National Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee exports for first eight months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year are 292,000 bags or 3.91% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 7,767,000 bags.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market were seen to increase by 7,945 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 798,683 bags, with 99.30% of these certified stocks held in, Europe at a total of 793,094 bags and the remaining 0.70% being held in the USA at a total 5,589 Bags. Of this, a total 407,867 bags, or 51.07% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 15.99% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 5,145 bags; to register 13,504 bags pending grading on the day.
The July 2024 to July 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 29.15 Usc/Lb. This equates to 12.57% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.
It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, ahead of key US jobs data due for release tomorrow, which economists indicate may provide speculative indications on the Federal Reserve fiscal policy and interest rate stance for the latter half of the year. The London Robusta Coffee, Sugar, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, while the New York Arabica Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.279 Sterling, at 1.089 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.302 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the north of par on modest firmer notes respectively. The markets both continued to find support during the early morning trade to trend in a firmer direction. This support was short lived in the New York market, as the market encountered resistance to drop back from the early morning highs and trend below par, accentuating the losses for the day. The New York market quickly attracted selling pressure to set a new low for the session. The London market was also seen to trade below par during the mid-morning session before attracting buying support near to the lows of the day to see the market recover all losses and trend back above par. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market continued to trade in softer territory, albeit recovering from the lows of the early morning session. The London market attracted a large degree of buying support to make significant gains during the afternoon session, which saw the market set a ceiling for the day. The New York market settled on a softer note, with only some of the earlier losses of the day intact, whilst the London market settled near to the highs of the day on a firmer note at the close.
The London market ended the day on a positive note with 89.68% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note, with 25.83% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with both the London and New York markets trading within a large range on the day to see the London market settle on a firmer note, albeit marginally back from the highs of the day and the New York market settle on a softer note with only some of the earlier losses of the day intact, might see the markets set for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
JUL 4471 + 139 JUL 231.95 – 1.95
SEP 4322 + 133 SEP 231.00 – 1.70
NOV 4152 + 119 DEC 229.15 – 1.60
JAN 3962 + 109 MAR 227.55 – 1.70
MAR 3795 + 90 MAY 226.40 – 1.70
MAY 3707 + 84 JUL 225.60 – 1.70
JUL 3635 + 80 SEP 224.40 – 1.70
SEP 3543 + 80 DEC 223.05 – 1.85
