Coffee Market Report
The Brazil government have reported preliminary data that illustrates the country’s green coffee exports for the month of June were 46.57% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 3,387,967 bags. The official breakdown of coffee exports by description for June will soon be released and can be anticipated to illustrate this figure more accurately.
The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of June was 216,000 bags or 22.59% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,172,000 bags. The National Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee production for the first nine months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 1,530,000 bags or 19.27% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 9,470,000 bags.
The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have meanwhile reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of June were 273,000 bags or 36.25% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,026,000 bags. The National Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee exports for first nine months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year are 565,000 bags or 6.87% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 8,793,000 bags.
The International Coffee Organisation ICO have maintained their forecast for global coffee supply at 5.83% lower than the previous year at a total of 178 million bags for the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year. The International Coffee Organisation have likewise maintained their forecast for global consumption for the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year, to grow by 2.25% from the previous year to reach a total of 177.00 million bags. This growth is anticipated to come from mainly immature coffee consumer markets, as well as foreseen increases to come from local consumption in producer countries, such as Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam.
The International Coffee Organisation ICO have reported that the global coffee exports for the month of May were 9.80% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 11.78 million bags. This they say, has contributed to the cumulative global coffee exports for the first eight months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 10.90% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 92.73 million bags.
The report reflects an increase in exports from South America during May, which registered a 59.60% increase in exports to consumer markets, when compared to the same month in the previous year, to register 5.54 million bags through to the end of May. Brazil and Colombia, the primary source of exports whereas Brazil led the way in green coffee exports that are reported to have registered a positive increase of 79.10% in comparison to the same month last year, to register 4.42 million bags exported in May. There was a comparative decrease in exports from Asia as Vietnam, India and Indonesia cumulatively registered 39.30% decrease in exports, when compared to the same month in the previous year to total 2.42 million bags during May, largely led by a decrease in exports of 46.90% from Vietnam during the month of May. Within the ICO report, exports for May were seen to have increased by 44.80% year on year from Africa to a total 1.74. million bags, with the main contributors of the increase in exports during the month of May being Ethiopia and Uganda, with exports registering 97.10% higher at 690,000 bags from Ethiopia and 22.10% higher at 550,000 bags from Uganda.
The ICO report similarly includes within the total global exports, the export figures, from Mexico and the traditional washed arabica Central American bloc; Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador, to report for May that exports were 0.20% higher than the same period in the previous year to total 2.07 million bags.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market with the exchange closed for the Independence Day holiday remained unchanged yesterday, to register these stocks at 820,629 bags, with 98.83% of these certified stocks held in, Europe at a total of 811,036 bags and the remaining 1.17% being held in the USA at a total 9,593 Bags. Of this, a total 423,782 bags, or 51.64% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 15.63% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 190 bags; to register 23,764 bags pending grading on the day.
The September 2024 to September 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 35.83 Usc/Lb. This equates to 15.98% price discount for the London Robusta coffee.
The commodity markets lacked the participation of many of the U.S.A based markets yesterday, which were closed due to the Independence Day holiday on Thursday the 4th July, the leading influence Oil markets closed firmer on the day. The London Robusta Coffee, Sugar, Gold and Platinum markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa, Silver and Palladium markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.274 Sterling, at 1.078 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.558 Brazil Real.
The London market trading solo for the day yesterday, started the day trading to the north of par on a positive note, the market was seen to quickly gain momentum climbing in a firmer direction as support was seen to build during the morning session. As the afternoon progressed, the London market was seen to set a ceiling for the day, to see the market set in a range for the remainder of the day’s session. The late afternoon session saw the London market drop back marginally from the earlier highs of the day to settle on a firmer note at the close with most of the day’s gains intact.
The London market ended the day yesterday on a positive note with 76% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended on Wednesday on a negative note, with 73.81% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This firmer close for the London market trading solo on the day, might indicate some degree of direction, albeit that the market traded in limited volume, to possibly see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Wednesday in New York and yesterday in London, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
Close: 04/07/2024 Close: 03/07/2024
SEP 4153 + 95 SEP 224.20 – 3.10
NOV 3985 + 83 DEC 222.05 – 2.65
JAN 3812 + 75 MAR 219.80 – 2.80
MAR 3700 + 71 MAY 217.45 – 2.90
MAY 3621 + 66 JUL 215.40 – 3.00
JUL 3556 + 66 SEP 213.65 – 2.95
SEP 3492 + 66 DEC 212.05 – 2.85
NOV 3447 + 66 MAR 210.65 – 2.80
