Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 8.63% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 23rd. July 2024: to register a new long position of 43,725 lots, which is the equivalent of 12,395,844 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased further following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector decrease their net long position by 3.10% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 23rd. July 2024: to register a new net long position of 36,640 Lots which is the equivalent of 6,106,667 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased following the period of mixed but overall softer sideways trade that has since followed.
Safras & Mercado have also estimated that almost 81% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested, as of the 23rd. July 2024. The harvest this year is at a faster pace, when compared to the same time last year which was reported at around 74%. Based on their forecast for a new crop of 66.04 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 53.49 million bags of the new crop coffee have been harvested, the coffee made up of around 19.67 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee, which is reported at 95% of the harvest complete and approximately 33.98 million bags of arabica coffee harvested, which is reported at 75% complete thus far.
With the month of July complete and shipment statistics already at hand, the Vietnam General Statistics office have estimated that the coffee exports for the month are reported as 35.70% lower than the same month last year, at a total of approximately 1,166,667 bags. The July 2024 export performance is anticipated to result in the countries coffee exports for the first ten months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 6.04% higher than the same period last year, at a cumulative total of 26,421,684 bags. The General Statistics office of Vietnam have at the same time estimated that the value of the country’s coffee exports for the first seven months of the current calendar year, shall be 31% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of approximately 3.50 billion US Dollars.
The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market were seen to remain unchanged on Friday, to register these stocks at 814,801 bags, with 98.08% of these certified stocks held in, Europe at a total of 799,158 bags and the remaining 1.92% being held in the USA at a total 15,643 Bags. Of this, a total 412,981 bags, or 50.68% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 15.43% of these certified coffees, from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 7,025 bags on the day; to register 33,355 bags pending grading on the day.
The September 2024 to September 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday, to register this at 35.11 Usc/Lb. This equates to 15.25% price discount for the London robusta coffee.
It was a softer day overall on the commodity on Friday, with the leading in influence Oil markets softer on the day. The Cocoa and Gold markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Coffee, Corn, Soybean, Sugar, Wheat, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.288 Sterling, at 1.086 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.666 Brazil Real.
The New York market started the day yesterday trading to the south of par in softer territory, whilst the London market started the day trading on a modest firmer note. The London market quickly reversed the trend to follow the New York market and trade below par, albeit in light volumes of trade for the morning session. The mid-morning session saw the markets recover marginally from the early morning lows, to find support and trend back towards par. This support was short lived as both the New York and London markets encountered resistance to see the markets fall back and continue to trend in a softer direction. As the afternoon progressed the markets slipped lower with limited speculative buyer interest at the top of the early session day, with speculative selling returning to the New York floor to trigger stops along the way. The London market followed suit and the markets continued to project lower with a measure of speculative long liquidation to accentuate the losses for the day’s trade, in comparatively modest volumes for the day. As the day progressed to the close selling activity started to wane toward the end of the days’ trade, to see the London market narrowly recover some of the earlier losses of the day, while the New York market was also seen to recover off of the lows of the day during the late afternoon session to settle on a softer note at the close, with most of the earlier losses of the day intact.
The London market ended the day on a negative note with 92.08% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a likewise negative note, with 90.82% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the markets and with both the New York and the London markets retaining most of the earlier losses to settle near to the lows of the day, one might think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
SEP 4302 – 93 SEP 230.25 – 4.45
NOV 4150 – 92 DEC 229.15 – 4.40
JAN 3984 – 82 MAR 227.90 – 4.25
MAR 3849 – 73 MAY 225.65 – 4.00
MAY 3747 – 70 JUL 223.70 – 3.80
JUL 3652 – 70 SEP 221.85 – 3.60
SEP 3572 – 70 DEC 219.45 – 3.50
NOV 3515 – 70 MAR 217.15 – 3.45
