Coffee Market Report

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund decrease their net long position by 6.78% within this market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 23rd. July 2024; to register a new long position at 58,660 Lots. The longer term in nature, Index Fund sector of this market decrease their net long position by 2.72% within the market, to register a new net long position of 46,459 Lots on the day.

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative decreased their net long position by 8.63% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 23rd. July 2024: to register a new net long position of 43,725 lots, which is the equivalent of 12,395,844 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased further following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market were seen to decrease by 145 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 814,656 bags, with 98.08% of these certified stocks held in, Europe at a total of 799,013 bags and the remaining 1.92% being held in the USA at a total 15,643 Bags. Of this, a total 412,981 bags, or 50.69% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 15.44% of these certified coffees, from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 14,168 bags on the day; to register 47,523 bags pending grading on the day.

The September 2024 to September 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 36.85 Usc/Lb. This equates to 15.99% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, ahead of the US Federal Reserve Policy meeting taking place this week. The US Dollar gained 0.2% on the day against a basket of other currencies. The New York Arabica Coffee, Corn, Sugar, Soybean, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firm note, while the London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Wheat, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.285 Sterling, at 1.082 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.616 Brazil Real.

The New York market started the day yesterday trading on a firmer note, whilst the London market started the day yesterday trading on a modest softer note. A continuation through the early morning session oscillating between par and mildly softer in early trade, before attracting some degree of support to trend firmer and set new highs for the day during the late morning session. As the day progressed, the London market was seen to drop back from the highs of the day and trend back towards par and into negative territory. The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day saw the New York market to trade within a comparatively narrow range on the day in modest volumes of trade. The New York market attracted some degree of resistance near to the highs of the day during the morning session to drop back set a new low for the day. The market was seen to rebound from the lows, finding support to recover all of the earlier losses and settle on a modest near to unchanged firmer note at the close. The London market continued on a softer path into the later afternoon session to settle on a negative note at the close, with more than half of the earlier losses of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 71.43% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a modest near to unchanged firmer note, with 4.48% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the New York market recovering from the lows of the day towards the close, and the London market settling on a softer note, one might think that the markets are possibly due for a follow through hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

SEP     4267 – 35                                          SEP    230.40 + 0.15
NOV   4122 – 28                                          DEC   229.35 + 0.20
JAN    3973 – 11                                          MAR  228.15 + 0.25
MAR  3846 – 3                                            MAY  226.20 + 0.55
MAY  3745 – 2                                            JUL    224.30 + 0.60
JUL    3652 Unch                                        SEP    222.50 + 0.65
SEP    3572 Unch                                        DEC   220.05 + 0.60
NOV  3514 – 1                                            MAR   217.80 + 0.65