Coffee Market Report

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market were seen to decrease by 6,765 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 831,685 bags, with 98.12% of these certified stocks held in, Europe at a total of 816,042 bags and the remaining 1.88% being held in the USA at a total 15,643 Bags. Of this, a total 396,385 bags, or 47.66% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 13.84% of these certified coffees, from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 57,820 bags; to register 104,415 bags pending grading on the day.

The November 2024 to December 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 33.01 Usc/Lb. This equates to 12.87% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was an overall softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, as the US Dollar found support strengthening against a basket of other currencies ahead of key inflation data due out tomorrow. The Coffee and Wheat markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Cocoa, Corn, Sugar, Soybean, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.321 Sterling, at 1.113 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.563 Brazil Real.

The New York market started the day yesterday trading on a modest near to par softer note, before attracting buying support early to gain momentum. The London market traded on a firmer note, albeit that this trend reversed and the market dropped back to trade below par for the remainder of the morning session. The New York and London market continued to trend softer, accentuating the losses for the day into the early afternoon session. As the afternoon progressed, the markets found support near to the lows of the day to rebound and gain momentum into the late afternoon session. The New York market encountered resistance near to the highs of the day to drop back and settle on firmer note, within a narrow range of trade on the day. The London market was seen to continue to build support towards the close to see the market settle on a firmer note with most of the early gains of the day intact. As the month draws to an end, there are a number of export figures that are due to be released to the markets.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 81.63% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day yesterday, on a positive note, with 46.15% of the earlier gains of the day intact. The follow through firmer close for the markets although with resistance tested may bring a degree of consolidation, the New York market encountered resistance near to the highs of the day in what was a comparatively narrow range trading day, and London buoyant although off of the day’s highs, potential for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

NOV    4926 + 80                                        DEC     256.45 + 1.20
JAN     4717 + 69                                        MAR    254.00 + 0.85
MAR   4537 + 68                                        MAY     251.60 + 0.80
MAY   4415 + 65                                        JUL       248.95 + 0.75
JUL     4310 + 62                                        SEP       246.05 + 0.80
SEP     4238 + 61                                        DEC      242.65 + 0.75
NOV   4175 + 59                                        MAR     239.10 + 0.60
JAN    4085 + 87                                        MAY     235.55 + 0.15