Coffee Market Report
| The Brazil government have reported preliminary data to illustrate that the country’s green coffee exports for the month of August were 4.86% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 3,451,183 bags. The official breakdown of coffee exports by description for August can be anticipated to report the breakdown of this export data to arabica, robusta and soluble green coffee equivalent, and one might expect to see Brazil Conilon again posting high year on year export increases, in line with heightened demand and despite the continued export bottlenecks. This being the second month of new crop harvest Brazil exports, the monthly export report is anticipated to come forth with greater detail and will be released soon.
The Vietnam Customs Authority have reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports for the month of August have registered 14.10% lower from the same month last year, at 1,216,667 bags. The initial estimate by the Vietnam Customs Authority for the month's coffee exports, initially set at a lower 1.16 million bags The cumulative export performance for the first eleven months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year in Vietnam the largest producer and exporter of robusta coffee to consumer markets, is reported to be 3,414,750 bags or 12.71% lower than the same period in the previous year, to cumulative eleven month total at 23,441,199 bags. These lower monthly export statistics serve to underscore the already absorbed reality of the lower production and reduced availability out of this leading robusta producer in the 2023/24 seasonal year, a factor that is firmly reflected in the historic record high values set in the London futures market. The General Statistics office of Vietnam have at the same time reported the country’s coffee revenue value for the first eight months of the calendar year, is reported at 34.80% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of approximately 4.00 billion US Dollars. The International Coffee Organisation ICO have maintained their forecast for global coffee supply at 5.83% lower than the previous year at a total of 178 million bags for the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year. The International Coffee Organisation have likewise maintained their forecast for global consumption for the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year, to grow by 2.25% from the previous year to reach a total of 177.00 million bags. This growth is anticipated to come from mainly immature coffee consumer markets, as well as foreseen increases to come from local consumption in producer countries, such as Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam. The International Coffee Organisation ICO have reported that the global coffee exports for the month of July were 12.20% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 11.29 million bags. This they say, has contributed to the cumulative global coffee exports for the first ten months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 10.50% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a reported total 115.01 million bags. The report reflects an increase in exports from South America during July, which registered a 26.00% increase in exports to consumer markets, when compared to the same month in the previous year, to register 5.24 million bags through to the end of July. Brazil and Colombia, the primary source of exports whereas Brazil led the way in green coffee exports that are reported to have registered a positive increase of 26.20% in comparison to the same month last year, to register 3.80 million bags exported in July. The report confirms the comparative decrease in exports from Asia as Vietnam, India and Indonesia cumulatively registered 8.10% decrease in exports, when compared to the same month in the previous year to total 2.77 million bags in July, largely led by a decrease in exports of 29.10% from Vietnam during the month of July. Within the ICO report, exports were seen to have increased by 34.70% year on year from Africa to a total 1.90 million bags, with the main contributors of the increase in exports during the month of July being Ethiopia and Uganda, exports registering 63.60% higher year on year at 720,000 bags from Ethiopia and 27.20% higher year on year, at 820,000 bags from Uganda. The ICO report similarly includes within the total global exports, the export figures, from Mexico and the traditional washed arabica Central American bloc; Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador, to report for July that exports were 7.10% lower than the same period in the previous year to total 1.38 million bags. The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 11,467 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 834,792 bags, with 97.70% of these certified stocks held in, Europe at a total of 815,633 bags and the remaining 2.30% being held in the USA at a total 19,159 Bags. Of this, a total 391,768 bags, or 46.30% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 12.40% of these certified coffees, from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 14,689 bags; to register 54,962 bags pending grading on the day. The November 2024 to December 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 21.44 Usc/Lb. This equates to 8.78% price discount for the London robusta coffee. It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the leading in influence Oil market firmer on the day. The New York Arabica Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the London Robusta Coffee, Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.318 Sterling, at 1.112 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.568 Brazil Real. The New York market started the day yesterday carrying through pressure from the close on Wednesday to trade marginally to the south of par, while the London market started the day trading on a modest firmer note. Both markets continued to oscillate to either side of par during the early morning session. The late morning session saw the New York market gain momentum as support was driven by buying in the market, while the London market continued to oscillate to the upside of par. As the afternoon progressed the markets gained support to recover from the early modest lows of the morning and trend firmer, the New York market buoyed by support in the market continued on a firmer trajectory before being capped late in the day to limit the day’s gains, this saw the market drop back from the highs and settle on a modest firmer note at the close, while the London market recovered all of the earlier losses of the day to settle on a modest near to unchanged softer note at the close. The London market ended the day on a modest near to unchanged softer note with 2.50% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day, on a modest near to unchanged positive note, with 10.31% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling near to steady on the day in the front months, and the New York market settling on a modest firmer note, might indicate some degree of consolidation and the markets may be set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB. NOV 4911 – 1 DEC 244.20 + 0.50 |
