Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund increase their net long position by 8.52% within this market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 17th. September 2024; to register a new long position at 61,453 Lots. The longer term in nature, Index Fund sector of this market increase their net long position by 0.38% within the market, to register a new net long position of 52,288 Lots on the day.
Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative increase their net long position by 11.64% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 17th. September 2024: to register a new net long position of 43,630 lots, which is the equivalent of 12,368,912 bags. This net long position is most likely steady following the period of volatile trade that has since followed.
The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority UCDA have reported that their country’s coffee exports for the month of August were 97,387 bags or 13.15% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 837,915 bags. Uganda Robusta exports registered a 14.33% increase when compared to the same month last year, to total 785,667 bags and Arabica exports registered a comparative 2.01% decrease when compared to the same month last year to total 52,248 bags exported in August 2024.
The UCDA also reports that the cumulative exports for the first eleven months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 254,183 bags or 4.56% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 5,818,240 bags. The UCDA have reported that during the month of August, the overall value of coffee exports has been seen to have increased by 82.98% when compared to the same month in the previous year, to total 221.63 million US Dollars.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 775 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 837,761 bags, with 97.92% of these certified stocks held in Europe at a total of 820,347 bags and the remaining 2.08% being held in the USA at a total 17,414 Bags. Of this, a total 408,263 bags, or 48.73% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 14.29% of these certified coffees, from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 3,840 bags; to register 10,881 bags pending grading on the day.
The November 2024 to December 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 24.33 Usc/Lb. This equates to 9.22% price discount for the London robusta coffee.
It was a mixed but overall firmer day for the commodity markets yesterday, with the traditional safe haven gold market setting a new all time record high during the session, this as the markets continue to react to the 50 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve last week. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Wheat and Gold, markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Sugar, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.335 Sterling, at 1.112 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.537 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday in muted volume, trading on a firmer note. The London market quickly gained momentum gapping higher at the outset of the early morning session, in limited volume for the early session. Both the New York and London markets were seen to build support as the day progressed. The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day pushed New York higher, triggering buy stops along the way to accentuate the gains for the day, this assisted to trigger speculative short covering which saw the New York market gain ground quickly throughout the afternoon session, with the London market following suit to make significant gains throughout the afternoon session. The New York market continued the upward momentum before being capped very late in the day, to see the market marginally drop back and settle on a very firm note at the close. The London market was seen to also settle on a very firm note at the close, with most of the earlier gains of the day intact.
The London market ended the day on a positive note with 92.74% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a likewise positive note, with 94.51% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close for the markets, might indicate some degree of support and direction with both the New York and London market gaining momentum throughout the session to settle near to the highs of the day albeit under modest volumes of trade. One might therefore think that the markets might be pressured for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
NOV 5276 + 217 DEC 263.65 + 12.90
JAN 5003 + 200 MAR 261.30 + 12.65
MAR 4816 + 202 MAY 258.80 + 12.35
MAY 4682 + 197 JUL 255.85 + 12.05
JUL 4569 + 190 SEP 252.40 + 11.85
SEP 4492 + 185 DEC 247.50 + 11.45
NOV 4414 + 185 MAR 242.65 + 11.10
JAN 4324 + 193 MAY 238.15 + 10.85
