Coffee Market Report

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 4.54% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 24th September 2024: to register a new long position of 41,649 lots, which is the equivalent of 11,807,307 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased marginally following the period of overall firmer trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector decrease their net long position by 7.28% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 24th. September 2024: to register a new net long position of 32,061 Lots which is the equivalent of 5,343,500 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased marginally following the period of overall firmer trade that has since followed.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 2,037 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 818,183 bags, with 97.87% of these certified stocks held in Europe at a total of 800,769 bags and the remaining 2.13% being held in the USA at a total 17,414 Bags. Of this, a total 390,830 bags, or 47.76% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 14.64% of these certified coffees, from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 40,850 bags to register 51,731 bags pending grading on the day.

The November 2024 to December 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday, to register this at 20.49 Usc/Lb. This equates to 7.61% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall softer day on the commodity markets on Friday, the initial flurry of fiscal stimulus announced by China earlier in the week, absorbed by the markets, and the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, reduced confidence. The leading in influence Oil market softer on the day. The Cocoa, Corn and Soybean markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Coffee, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.332 Sterling, at 1.116 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.434 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day on Friday trading to the south of par, pressured lower from the outset. The downward pressure in the markets continued, as both the London and New York markets were seen to encounter resistance to trend lower during the late morning session. As the afternoon progressed the volume increased, to contribute to the day’s direction with speculative selling pressuring the New York market lower as stops were triggered along the way. The London market followed suit, and the markets continued to project lower with a measure of speculative long liquidation to accentuate the losses for the day’s trade. The late afternoon session saw the markets rebound off the lows of the day to recover most of the earlier losses of the day. This saw the London market settle on a softer note with less than half of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market recovered some of the earlier losses to settle on a softer note at the close, albeit in modest trade volumes for the day.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 28.13% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a likewise negative note, with 51.08% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for both New York and London markets, albeit that the markets recovered from the earlier lows of the day in a comparatively lighter volume session, might see the markets set for a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

NOV       5482 – 45                                     DEC       269.15 – 4.75
JAN        5203 – 39                                     MAR      266.90 – 4.85
MAR      4983 – 46                                     MAY       264.35 – 4.70
MAY      4808 – 51                                     JUL         261.20 – 4.40
JUL        4650 – 55                                     SEP         257.65 – 4.15
SEP        4531 – 53                                     DEC        252.15 – 3.60
NOV      4434 – 53                                     MAR       247.20 – 3.00
JAN       4342 – 55                                     MAY       242.80 – 2.55