Coffee Market Report

The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of August were 48,148 bags or 17.87% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 317,585 bags. This contributes to the islands cumulative robusta coffee exports for the first five months of the current April 2024 to March 2025 coffee year to be 1,330 bags or 0.15% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 899,167 bags. The new April 2024 to March 2025 coffee year, which is around 85% robusta coffee and the balance arabica coffee, has been conservatively forecast to potentially reach a median of 11.50 million bags.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 12,655 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 801,344 bags, with 97.83% of these certified stocks held in Europe at a total of 783,930 and the remaining 2.17% being held in the USA at a total 17,414 Bags. Of this, a total 378,868 bags, or 47.27% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 14.91% of these certified coffees, from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 2,670 bags to register 54,830 bags pending grading on the day.

The Certified robusta coffee stocks held against the London Exchange reported a decrease by 80,833 bags during the week leading up to the 30th September 2024, to register a total of 739,333 bags being held in northern hemisphere consumer country warehouses.

The November 2024 to December 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 17.17 Usc/Lb. This equates to 6.50% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, with US labour data due to be released at the end of the week, providing cues on possible further interest rate cuts to come. The Corn, Sugar, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Coffee, Cocoa and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.321 Sterling, at 1.107 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.425 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the south of par, pressured lower from the outset of the day’s session. The markets continued to attract resistance to drop further below par accentuating the loses for the day. As the afternoon progressed the volume increased, to contribute to the day’s direction with speculative selling pressuring the New York market lower as stops were triggered along the way. The London market followed suit and the markets continued to project lower with a measure of speculative long liquidation to accentuate the losses for the day’s trade. The late afternoon session saw the markets rebound off of the lows of the day to recover a small degree of losses, in fair volumes on the day. The New York market recovered some of the losses to settle on a softer note at the close, albeit within a relatively wide range on the day whilst the London market recovered more than half of the earlier losses to settle on a softer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 46.09% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a likewise negative note, with 69.71% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for both New York and London markets, with the markets pressured lowered throughout the session to see the New York market settle near to the lows of the day, whilst the London market recovered more than half of the losses of the day, might see the markets set for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

NOV      5445 – 53                                      DEC       264.15 – 6.10
JAN       5179 – 46                                      MAR      262.15 – 5.80
MAR     4945 – 50                                      MAY      259.80 – 5.45
MAY     4777 – 48                                      JUL        257.00 – 5.20
JUL       4637 – 36                                      SEP        253.70 – 5.10
SEP       4530 – 28                                      DEC       248.40 – 5.25
NOV     4445 – 19                                      MAR      243.70 – 5.40
JAN      4348 – 19                                      MAY      239.35 – 5.85