Coffee Market Report

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 5,470 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 795,874 bags, with 97.81% of these certified stocks held in Europe at a total of 778,460 and the remaining 2.19% being held in the USA at a total 17,414 Bags. Of this, a total 373,673 bags, or 46.95% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 15.01% of these certified coffees, from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 3,560 bags, to register 58,390 bags pending grading on the day.

The November 2024 to December 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 28.82 Usc/Lb. This equates to 11.44% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, as the markets reacted to a stronger US Dollar against a basket of other currencies. The influential Oil markets registering upward momentum on the day, in fresh escalation of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East. The latest round of end month economic data reports due to be released to end the week, while investors toned down expectation of interest rate decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Cocoa, Sugar, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Coffee, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.312 Sterling, at 1.103 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.477 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day, on a softer note in light volume, New York market started the day trading on a firmer note, trading in positive territory and for the duration of the morning session before being capped in technical trade to track below par. The markets settled within a narrow range for the morning. As the afternoon progressed, the opening of the business day in the Americas brought increased volume to the floor to contribute to the day’s direction with speculative selling active to trigger stops along the way. The London market followed, and with weather forecasts signalling rain forecasts ahead for Brazil, speculative participation within a softer macroeconomic environment. The markets traded in softer territory, to see the selling activity wane toward the end of the days’ trade in limited volumes, and the markets marginally recover some of the earlier losses of the day, to settle near to the lows of the day, on a soft note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 92.68% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a likewise negative note, with 100% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This follow through very soft close, with both the New York and London markets settling near to the lows of the day with most of the earlier losses intact, might lead one to think that the markets are due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

NOV      4921 – 190                                    DEC       252.05 – 4.45
JAN       4720 – 142                                    MAR      250.50 – 4.25
MAR     4548 – 103                                    MAY      248.55 – 4.25
MAY     4423 – 88                                      JUL        246.05 – 4.30
JUL       4312 – 80                                      SEP        243.15 – 4.30
SEP       4230 – 77                                      DEC       238.40 – 4.15
NOV     4155 – 75                                      MAR      233.90 – 4.15
JAN      4074 – 72                                      MAY      229.75 – 4.10