Coffee Market Report
The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil Cecafé have reported that the countries green coffee exports for the month of September were 33.44% higher than the same month last year, to total 4.11 million bags, this number made up of 3.19 million bags of arabica coffee up 31.82% from the same month last year and 911,881 bags of Conilon robusta coffee, up 40.92% from the same month last year.
The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé have also reported the cumulative exports of green coffee for the first three months of the current July 2024 to June 2025 Brazil coffee year, to be 20.34% higher, overall, when compared to the same time in the previous coffee year, at a total of 10.99 million bags.
This marks the highest level of exports recorded during the first three months of the Brazil seasonal July 2024 to June 2025 coffee year, and in record terms exceeding the cumulative three-month export figure recorded during the bumper record crop production year in 2020/21 coffee year, which was reported at 9.91 million bags. For the first three months of the current year, exports are made up of 8.23 million bags of arabica coffee up 5.38% from the previous record 2020/21 coffee year and significantly 2.77 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee, an increase of 74.21% versus the previous record 2020/21 coffee year.
The Brazil robusta Conilon regions in Espirito Santo, Bahia and Rondonia, over the past ten years, has seen Conilon exports increase from 3.20 million bags during the full 2014/15 coffee year, to reflect near to the same quantity during the first three months of the current 2024/25 Brazil export year, at 2.77 million bags. Following a few years of lower production of robusta coffee in Vietnam, other robusta producer countries, to include Indonesia, Uganda and Brazil with their Conilon robusta coffee have stepped up to the plate. The most significant in increased export market share, is Brazil Conilon that has registered export performance increase from a modest 3.20 million bags of Brazil Conilon robusta coffee exports per annum, to now be an average 4.50 million bags to other coffee producer countries as well as non-producer consumer markets, and the certified stock warehouses in consumer countries, to become a more significant supplier in worldwide market share of robusta coffee in the 2020’s.
One might also comment that the record coffee exports for first three months of the current coffee year from Brazil are necessary, to support and boost low coffee inventories in the main Northern Hemisphere markets. These coffee consumer markets absorb 52% of world production, at an estimated 89.50 million bags per annum. The estimated consumer inventories in these markets are estimated to be around 10 weeks roasting cover for arabica coffees and an estimated in consumer country robusta coffee supply equivalent to 6 weeks of roasting cover for robusta coffee, on the lower end of what would be viewed as comfortable cover. This, particularly in view of the continual disruptions and delays in logistics to move coffee from origin countries to consumer countries.
Hurricane Milton has made landfall off the west coast of Florida, bringing with it strong winds and high levels of rainfall. The storm has been classified as a category 3 Hurricane, many residents have been evacuated from their homes and businesses.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 1,107 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 808,892 bags, with 97.85% of these certified stocks held in Europe at a total of 791,478 and the remaining 2.15% being held in the USA at a total 17,414 Bags. Of this, a total 364,847 bags, or 45.10% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 16.38% of these certified coffees, from Honduras. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 3,750 bags, to register 51,456 bags pending grading on the day.
The November 2024 to December 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 29.38 Usc/Lb. This equates to 11.75% price discount for the London robusta coffee.
It was mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the US Dollar reaching near to two months highs against a basket of other currencies. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Wheat and Palladium markets ended the day on a firm note, the Platinum market remained unchanged on the day, while the Sugar, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.308 Sterling, at 1.096 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.535 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the north of par modest firmer notes respectively. The markets continued in light volume of trade to track lower during the morning session. This early pressure was short lived as a measure of Speculative and commercial activity came in to see the markets reverse the trend, to gain support and trend firmer for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed the markets continued to trade within positive territory, and a steady narrow range to settle in the green, although marginally off the days’ highs in both markets.
The London market ended the day on a positive note with 10.71% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a likewise positive note, with 39.36% of the earlier gains of the day intact. The close for the markets, albeit that both the New York and London markets fell back from the highs of the day during the session to maintain only some of the earlier gains of the day, would indicate that the news of record exports from Brazil, as well as the US Dollar firmer on the day, one might think that the markets are due for a mildly softer follow through opening in early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
NOV 4865 + 9 DEC 250.05 + 1.85
JAN 4701 + 17 MAR 248.80 + 1.85
MAR 4548 + 35 MAY 247.00 + 1.85
MAY 4422 + 36 JUL 244.70 + 1.85
JUL 4309 + 36 SEP 242.00 + 1.80
SEP 4231 + 36 DEC 237.45 + 1.70
NOV 4157 + 34 MAR 233.00 + 1.65
JAN 4077 + 34 MAY 229.00 + 1.55
