Coffee Market Report
The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority UCDA have reported that their country’s coffee exports for the month of September were 44,190 bags or 7.67% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 532,212 bags. Uganda Robusta exports registered a 7.02% decrease when compared to the same month last year, to total 504,576 bags and Arabica exports registered a comparative 18.02% decrease when compared to the same month last year to total 27,636 bags exported in September 2024.
The UCDA also reports that the cumulative exports for the full October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 209,993 bags or 3.42% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 6,350,452 bags. This number made up of 5,550,699 bags robusta coffee, up 8.35% from the previous coffee year and 799,703 bags arabica coffee, down 21.39% from the previous year. The UCDA have reported that during the month of September, the overall value of coffee exports has been seen to have increased by 53.79% when compared to the same month in the previous year, to total 144.71 million US Dollars.
Uganda is the leading robusta producer country in Africa and fourth largest robusta exporter to non-producing consumer markets is expected to produce around 6.50 million bags during the new October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year, which is on par with the previous 2023/24 year. This crop is expected to be made up of 5.50 million bags of Robusta Coffee and around 1 million bags of arabica Coffee.
The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé, has come forth to report the continued shipment delays at Brazilian ports, stating that according to their findings, 2.16 million bags of coffee have faced shipment delays and not been exported from Brazil from January through to September this year. The report attributes these delays primarily to the limited container equipment availability, persistent congestion and rolling of shipments at port terminals. As a result of these delays, port terminals are operating at maximum capacity, leading to significant limitations in their ability to receive new cargo. The physical space constraints within the terminals exacerbate the issue, causing further bottlenecks in the handling of shipments.
Despite these logistical challenges, the latest export data from Cecafé reflects increasing year on year green coffee exports from Brazil, reaching a record level in the first nine months of the calendar year, to register 33.43 million bags. The bulk of this coffee is natural process arabica that has through the dominance of this leading coffee producers' year on year production, consistency and price has steadily etched out the largest individual origin coffee market share within the international blend, a staple coffee in supply to leading coffee consumer markets.
The National Coffee Association (NCA) based in the USA have released their latest Coffee Data Trends Report in which, they report information extrapolated from a small sample of respondents, that an average 63% of Americans surveyed have indicated that they had a cup of coffee in the past day, this figure is lower than the sampled report at 67% earlier in the year. The report further illustrates an increase in out-of-home consumer behaviour, the assumption that there has with the shift in economic landscape, following interest rate cuts, recorded coffee consumption from out-of-home venues increasing to pre-Covid levels, with 36% of coffee drinkers consuming at least one cup of coffee from out of home venues. While the at home coffee consumption continues to grow and still be the most preferred venue for coffee consumption with the USA, the report states that 81% of all coffee prepared is consumed at home.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 8,285 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 836,998 bags, with 97.99% of these certified stocks held in Europe at a total of 820,224 and the remaining 2.01% being held in the USA at a total 16,774 Bags. Of this, a total 379,942 bags, or 45.39% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 16.31% of these certified coffees, from Nicaragua. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 10,205 bags, to register 33,825 bags pending grading on the day.
The November 2024 to December 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 37.60 Usc/Lb. This equates to 14.57% price discount for the London robusta coffee.
It was firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, as weaker than expected inflation data out of Europe and the UK indicate the probability for further interest rate cuts to come from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England next month. The New York Arabica Coffee, Corn, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a firm note, while the London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Soybean markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.298 Sterling, at 1.085 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.669 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on firmer notes respectively, making gains during the morning session to see both the New York and London markets set a new high for the day’s session early in the day. The late morning session saw the markets drop back from the early highs as there was a degree of selling pressure seen to weigh the markets lower. As the afternoon progressed, the London market traded back through par, albeit in light volumes of trade. The New York market was seen to trade in a narrow range on the day, dropping back from the early highs to trade above par for the remainder of the session and to see the market settle on a modest firmer note with only some of the earlier gains of the day intact at the close, in which was a very light trade volume day. The London market recovered from the lows of the session to trend firmer towards the close. The London market recovered from the lows of the day, late in the day to gain support and recover some of the earlier losses to see the London market settle on a softer note at the close, following a comparatively light volume and mostly technical day, with some of the earlier losses of the day intact.
The London market ended the day on a negative note with 61.73% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a positive note, with 45.61% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the London market recovering some of the earlier losses to settle on a softer note, with the inversion of the market and the continued large spreads between nearby futures months along with the New York market settling on a modest firmer note, might possibly see the market set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
NOV 4859 – 50 DEC 258.00 + 1.30
JAN 4752 – 26 MAR 256.65 + 1.15
MAR 4628 – 10 MAY 254.70 + 1.15
MAY 4520 – 4 JUL 251.45 + 1.05
JUL 4414 – 2 SEP 247.50 + 1.05
SEP 4335 – 6 DEC 241.60 + 1.10
NOV 4262 – 7 MAR 236.30 + 1.05
JAN 4182 – 7 MAY 231.50 + 0.90
