Coffee Market Report

The Vietnam Customs Authority have reported that Vietnam’s cumulative export performance for the full October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year, is reported to be 3,397,533 bags or 12.26% lower than the same period in the previous year, to cumulative twelve-month total at 24,307,866 bags.

The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association have reported that the value of coffee exports for the full October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year reached 5.43 billion US Dollars, the highest ever recorded export revenue for a single coffee season in Vietnam. This export value represents a 33.10% increase from the previous coffee year and marks the first time that the world's largest robusta exporter to consumer markets has had coffee export turnover exceed 5 billion US Dollars. These higher prices an extension of the sustained high London Coffee Futures Market price levels.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 500 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 849,461 bags, with 98.03% of these certified stocks held in Europe at a total of 832,687 and the remaining 1.97% being held in the USA at a total 16,774 Bags. Of this, a total 397,244 bags, or 46.76% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 15.71% of these certified coffees, from Nicaragua. The pending grading stocks were seen to remain unchanged on the day, to register 94,404 bags pending grading on the day.

The Certified robusta coffee stocks held against the London Exchange reported a decrease by 26,500 bags, during the week leading up to the 21st October 2024, to register a total 670,000 bags being held in northern hemisphere consumer country warehouses.

The November 2024 to December 2024 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 46.32 Usc/Lb. This equates to 18.54% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, the gold markets continue to climb in the wake of the uncertainties in the world’s geopolitical arena and the largest consumer economy, ahead of the US Presidential Elections that due to be held on the 5th November 2024. The Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Coffee, Cocoa and Sugar markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.299 Sterling, at 1.082 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.689 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a firmer note, carrying through the momentum from the close on Monday. Both the New York and London markets set highs for the day during the early morning session, encountering resistance to drop back and trend softer for the remainder of the day. The markets were pressured lower throughout the late morning session, with some degree of selling in the market. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market continued to trade lower, accentuating the losses for the day, albeit in modest volumes of trade. The London market was seen to drop lower, pressured by selling activity. The news from Vietnam likely weighing on speculative sentiment. The New York market was seen to settle into a range during the late afternoon session, to see the market close on a softer note, while the London market continued to trend softer, before finding support near to the lows of the day, to recover some of the earlier losses and settle on a softer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 76.27% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a likewise negative note, with 58.73% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This follow through softer close for the markets, albeit that both the New York and London markets recovered some of the earlier losses of the day, ahead of first notice day in the prompt month in London due in less than three trading days’ time, one might think that the markets are due for a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

NOV   4487 – 90                                          DEC    249.85 – 1.85
JAN    4425 – 78                                          MAR   248.75 – 1.70
MAR  4335 – 70                                          MAY    247.20 – 1.35
MAY  4263 – 61                                          JUL      244.40 – 0.95
JUL    4180 – 57                                          SEP      240.85 – 0.80
SEP    4106 – 59                                          DEC     235.10 – 0.75
NOV  4030 – 58                                          MAR    230.20 – 0.70
JAN   3950 – 58                                          MAY    226.15 – 0.40