Coffee Market Report

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 4.73% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 22nd. October 2024: to register a new long position of 38,731 lots, which is the equivalent of 10,980,067 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased further following the period of overall sideways softer trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector decrease their net long position by 20.99% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 22nd. October 2024: to register a new net long position of 23,273 Lots which is the equivalent of 3,878,833 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased further following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 3,374 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 843,284 bags, with 97.86% of these certified stocks held in Europe at a total of 825,230 and the remaining 2.14% being held in the USA at a total 18,054 Bags. Of this, a total 401,118, or 47.56% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 15.89% of these certified coffees, from Nicaragua. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 2,651 bags on the day, to register 118,437 bags pending grading on the day.

The December 2024 to January 2025 contract arbitrage between the New York and London markets narrowed on Friday, to register this at 48.32 Usc/Lb. This equates to 19.45% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets on Friday, with the leading in influence Oil markets firmer on the day. The Coffee, Cocoa, Gold and Palladium markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Corn, Sugar, Soybean, Wheat, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.295 Sterling, at 1.079 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.707 Brazil Real.

The New York market started the day on Friday trading to the north of par on a firmer note, whilst the London market started the day on Friday trading to the south of par on a modest softer note. Both markets continued to oscillate to either side of par, before attracting a modest degree of selling pressure to trade below par. The markets reversed this trend during the mid-morning session, in a comparatively quiet volume morning. Both the New York and London markets were seen to build support as the day progressed. The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day pushed New York higher, triggering buy stops along the way to accentuate the gains for the day, this assisted to trigger speculative short covering which saw the New York market gain ground quickly throughout the afternoon session, with the London market following suit to make gains throughout the afternoon session. The London market continued the upward momentum before being capped very late in the day, with open interest registering at 4,624 lots ahead of first notice day on the prompt month tomorrow, to see the market marginally drop back and settle on a very firm note at the close. The New York market followed suit to settle on a very firm note at the close, with most of the earlier gains of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 83.15% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a likewise positive note, with 89.40% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firm close for the markets, might indicate some degree of support and direction with both the New York and London market gaining momentum throughout the session to settle near to the highs of the day albeit in comparatively modest volumes of trade. One might therefore think that the markets will be set for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

JAN      4411 + 74                                       DEC       248.40 + 2.95
MAR    4323 + 57                                       MAR      247.50 + 3.05
MAY    4256 + 52                                       MAY       246.15 + 3.15
JUL      4178 + 49                                       JUL         243.60 + 3.35
SEP      4113 + 52                                       SEP         240.30 + 3.55
NOV    4056 + 58                                       DEC        235.00 + 3.80
JAN     3984 + 63                                       MAR       230.45 + 3.95
MAR   3925 + 69                                       MAY       226.80 + 4.05