Coffee Market Report

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund marginally increase their net long position by 0.15% within this market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 22nd. October 2024; to register a new long position at 56,288 Lots. The longer term in nature, Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position by 3.74% within the market, to register a new net long position of 53,804 Lots on the day.

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative decrease their net long position by 4.73% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 22nd. October 2024: to register a new net long position of 38,731 lots, which is the equivalent of 10,980,067 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased further following the period of overall sideways softer trade that has since followed.

According to data released by The National Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (ICAFE) on Friday, Costa Rica coffee exports increased by 1.6%, reaching 1.02 million bags for the 2023/2024 coffee year. This has concluded last month. ICAFE have estimated that the country’s October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year will likely rise by an estimated 6% to a forecast total 1.31 million bags.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by
3,885 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 839,399 bags, with 97.85% of these certified stocks held in Europe at a total of 821,345 and the remaining 2.15% being held in the USA at a total 18,054 Bags. Of this, a total 397,483, or 47.35% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 15.97% of these certified coffees, from Nicaragua. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 7,040 bags on the day, to register 111,397 bags pending grading on the day.

The December 2024 to January 2025 contract arbitrage between the New York and London markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 48.14 Usc/Lb. This equates to 19.07% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday. The Coffee, Cocoa, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Corn, Sugar, Soybean, Wheat, and Gold markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.297 Sterling, at 1.081 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.711 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday, trading to the north of par on a modest firmer note. Both markets continued to oscillate to either side of par, before continuing to attract a modest degree of buying support to trend firmer. The markets were seen to encounter resistance during the mid-morning session, in a comparatively quiet volume morning. The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day, saw the markets gain support to push the New York higher, triggering buy stops along the way to accentuate the gains for the day, this assisted to trigger speculative short covering which saw the New York market gain ground quickly throughout the afternoon session, with the London market following suit to make gains throughout the afternoon session. The New York market continued the upward momentum before being capped very late in the day, to see the market marginally drop back and settle on a very firm note at the close. The London market followed suit to settle on a very note at the close, with more than half of the earlier gains of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 72.22% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a likewise positive note, with 54.48% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This follow through firmer close for the markets might indicate some degree of confidence and direction, albeit that the markets encountered resistance near to the highs of the day late in the day, which may see the markets due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

JAN        4502 + 91                                     DEC 252.35 + 3.95
MAR      4410 + 87                                     MAR 251.35 + 3.85
MAY      4337 + 81                                     MAY 249.90 + 3.75
JUL        4255 + 77                                     JUL 247.20 + 3.60
SEP        4187 + 74                                    SEP 243.95 + 3.65
NOV      4134 + 78                                    DEC 238.60 + 3.60
JAN       4062 + 78                                    MAR 234.00 + 3.55
MAR     4003 + 78                                    MAY 230.25 + 3.45