Coffee Market Report

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 4,385 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 835,014 bags, with 97.84% of these certified stocks held in Europe at a total of 816,960 and the remaining 2.16% being held in the USA at a total 18,054 Bags. Of this, a total 393,098 or 47.07% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 16.06% of these certified coffees, from Nicaragua. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 16,705 bags on the day, to register 128,102 bags pending grading on the day.

The December 2024 to January 2025 contract arbitrage between the New York and London markets widened yesterday, to register this at 48.61 Usc/Lb. This equates to 19.59% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall firmer on the commodity markets yesterday, with the leading in influence Oil markets firmer on the day ahead of the elections in the USA due to take place in the weeks ahead. The Cocoa, Corn, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Coffee and Soybean markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.300 Sterling, at 1.081 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.752 Brazil Real.

The New York market started the day trading to the north of par on a firmer note, while the London market started the day trading to the south of par on a softer note. Both markets were pressured lower during the early session, dropping below par to trend in a softer direction from the open. The markets continued a softer trajectory as resistance was encountered to see the markets move lower during the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed, the New York and London market were seen to briefly recover from the lows of the morning to gain momentum and set a new high for the day. This support was short lived, and the markets dropped back to see the volume increase to contribute to the day’s direction with speculative selling on the New York floor assisting to trigger stops along the way. The London market followed suit, and the markets continued to project lower to accentuate the losses for the day’s trade. The selling activity started to wane toward the end of the days’ trade, to see the markets marginally recover some of the earlier losses of the day, in limited volumes of trade for both the New York and London markets, to settle near to the lows of the day, on a soft note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 82.54% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a likewise negative note, with 94.44% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close, with both the New York and London markets settling near to the lows of the day with most of the earlier losses intact, might lead one to think that the markets are due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

JAN        4398 – 104                                   DEC       248.10 – 4.25
MAR      4312 – 98                                     MAR      247.25 – 4.10
MAY      4244 – 93                                     MAY      245.85 – 4.05
JUL        4170 – 85                                    JUL         243.25 – 3.95
SEP        4103 – 84                                    SEP         240.05 – 3.90
NOV      4052 – 82                                    DEC        234.95 – 3.65
JAN       3982 – 80                                    MAR       230.75 – 3.25
MAR     3923 – 80                                    MAY       227.30 – 2.95