Coffee Market Report

The Vietnam Customs Authority have reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports for the month of October have registered 1.50% higher from the previous month, at 733,333 bags. This number is proving to be marginally higher than the 700,000 bags that had been initially forecast for the month’s coffee exports. The cumulative export performance for the first ten months of the current calendar year is reported to be 11.20% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total 19,166,667 bags.

The cumulative export performance for the full October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year which has completed in Vietnam the largest producer and exporter of robusta coffee to consumer markets, was reported to be 3,397,533 bags or 12.26% lower than the same period in the previous year, to cumulative twelve-month total at 24,307,866 bags. This lower year of export statistics serve to underscore the already absorbed reality of the lower production and reduced availability out of this leading robusta producer in the 2023/24 seasonal year, a factor that is firmly reflected in the historic record high values set in the London futures market.

The General Statistics office of Vietnam have at the same time reported the country’s coffee revenue value for the first ten months of the calendar year, is reported at 39% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of approximately 4.60 billion US Dollars.

The weather reports from Vietnam forecast that the rains have abated following the Tropical Storm Trami which moved through the coffee growing areas during the last week of October. This as the world’s largest Robusta coffee producer has begun harvest of the new October 2024 to September 2025 coffee crop.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 1,850 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 863,440 bags, with 97.91% of these certified stocks held in Europe at a total of 845,386 bags and the remaining 2.09% being held in the USA at a total 18,054 Bags. Of this, a total 428,491 bags or 49.63% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 15.56% of these certified coffees, from Nicaragua. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 2,540 bags on the day, to register 108,904 bags pending grading on the day.

The December 2024 to January 2025 contract arbitrage between the New York and London markets widened yesterday, to register this at 51.84 Usc/Lb. This equates to 20.72% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, as a closely contested US Presidential Election and the news on developments in the political arena continue, many around the globe follow the results. The U.S. Federal Reserve make announcements on the fiscal stance and the interest rate at their policy meeting tomorrow. The Coffee, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Cocoa, Sugar and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.290 Sterling, at 1.077 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.751 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest firmer note, to gain momentum during the early morning session. Both the New York and London markets were seen to build support as the day progressed. The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day pushed New York higher, triggering technical buy stops along the way to accentuate the gains for the day, this assisted to trigger speculative short covering which saw the New York market gain ground quickly throughout the afternoon session, with the London market following suit to make gains throughout the afternoon session, in good volumes of trade. The New York market continued the upward momentum before being capped very late in the day, to see the market marginally drop back and settle on a firm note at the close. The London market followed suit to settle on a firm note at the close, with more than half of the earlier gains of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 65.86% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a likewise positive note, with 66.67% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This follow through firmer close for the markets, might indicate some degree of support and direction with both the New York and London market gaining momentum throughout the session to settle near to the highs of the day, in good volume of trade. One might therefore think that the markets will be set for another hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

JAN     4372 + 54                                        DEC    250.15 + 4.20
MAR   4303 + 54                                        MAR   249.40 + 4.45
MAY   4244 + 47                                        MAY    248.15 + 4.35
JUL     4171 + 46                                        JUL      246.00 + 4.30
SEP     4107 + 45                                        SEP      243.20 + 4.15
NOV   4059 + 44                                         DEC    238.50 + 4.00
JAN    3992 + 44                                         MAR    234.55 + 3.85
MAR  3933 + 44                                         MAY    231.00 + 3.75