Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund decrease their net long position by 4.34% within this market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 5th November 2024; to register a new long position at 52,372 Lots. The longer term in nature, Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position by 7.45% within the market, to register a new net long position of 49,627 Lots on the day.
Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative decrease their net long position by 2.38% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 5th November 2024: to register a new net long position of 37,158 lots, which is the equivalent of 10,534,128 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed following the period of overall firmer trade that has since followed.
The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil Cecafé have reported that the countries green coffee exports for the month of October were 10.49% higher than the same month last year, to total 4.57 million bags, this number made up of 3.70 million bags of arabica coffee up 7.56% from the same month last year and 871,171 bags of Conilon robusta coffee, up 26.88% from the same month last year. 4,567,131
The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé have also reported the cumulative exports of green coffee for the first four months of the current July 2024 to June 2025 Brazil coffee year, to be 18.15% higher, overall, when compared to the same time in the previous coffee year, at a total of 15.56 million bags.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 192 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 852,446 bags, with 97.88% of these certified stocks held in Europe at a total of 834,392 bags and the remaining 2.12% being held in the USA at a total 18,054 Bags. Of this, a total 435,163 bags or 51.05% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 14.69% of these certified coffees, from Nicaragua. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 5,485 bags on the day, to register 112,282 bags pending grading on the day.
The December 2024 to January 2025 contract arbitrage between the New York and London markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 53.17 Usc/Lb. This equates to 20.70% price discount for the London robusta coffee.
It was a softer day overall on the commodity markets yesterday, weighed by the greenback's continued strength against a basket of other currencies and the broader implications of the US Presidential Election on fiscal policy and interest rate cuts to come. The Coffee and Cocoa markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Corn, Soybean, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.286 Sterling, at 1.065 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.772 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a firm note, to gain momentum during the early morning session. The London market was slower to react and having set a higher level, traded either side of par in a comparatively quiet volume morning. Both the New York and London markets were seen to build support as the day progressed. The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day pushed New York higher, triggering technical buy stops along the way to accentuate the gains for the day, this assisted to trigger speculative short covering which saw the New York market gain ground quickly throughout the afternoon session, with the London market following suit to make gains throughout the afternoon session, in modest volumes of trade. The New York market continued the upward momentum before being capped, to limit the gains for the day and see the market drop back and settle on a firm note at the close with more than half of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market followed suit to settle on a firm note at the close, with most of the earlier gains of the day intact.
The London market ended the day on a positive note with 87.72% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended on a likewise positive note, with 53.27% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close for the markets, might indicate some degree of support and direction with both the New York and London market gaining momentum throughout the session to see the London market settle near to the high of the day, albeit that the New York market dropped back from the highs of the day, one might think that the markets are due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
JAN 4476 + 100 DEC 256.20 + 2.85
MAR 4412 + 94 MAR 255.85 + 2.75
MAY 4358 + 95 MAY 254.50 + 2.70
JUL 4289 + 106 JUL 251.90 + 2.60
SEP 4217 + 106 SEP 248.55 + 2.70
NOV 4160 + 105 DEC 242.95 + 3.05
JAN 4095 + 105 MAR 237.85 + 3.15
MAR 4036 + 105 MAY 233.45 + 3.10
