Coffee Market Report

The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority UCDA have reported that their country’s coffee exports for the month of October were 27,120 bags or 5.78% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 496,820 bags. Uganda Robusta exports registered a 11.66% increase when compared to the same month last year, to total 457,853 bags and Arabica exports registered a comparative 34.67% decrease when compared to the same month last year to total 38,967 bags exported in October 2024.

This marks the first month of the new October 2024 to September 2025 coffee export year. The UCDA have reported that during the month of October, the value of exports has been seen to have increased by 76.27% when compared to the same month in the previous year, to total 139.05 million US Dollars.

Uganda is the leading robusta producer country in Africa and fourth largest robusta exporter to non-producing consumer markets, who is expected to produce around 6.50 million bags green coffee during the new October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year, which is on par with the previous 2023/24 year. This crop is expected to be made up of 5.50 million bags of Robusta Coffee and around 1 million bags of Arabica Coffee.

Chinese coffee chain, Luckin Coffee has signed an agreement to purchase 240,000 tons of coffee or 4 million bags of coffee from Brazil during the 2025 – 2029 period. This follows the agreement that Luckin coffee would purchase 500 million US Dollars of coffee from Brazil during the 2024 year. This represents more than half of China’s expected consumption of 6.2 million bags for the 2024/25 coffee year as reported by the USDA. One might comment that this is a fair representation of the potential for growth and coffee consumer trends in relatively new coffee consumer markets within the coffee producer sector. Consumption in China is expected to keep growing at a steady pace of around 16.50% year on year. The agreement to purchase this volume of coffee from Brazil will see a shift in dynamics as internal consumption for the 2023/24 coffee year, within China had been mainly comprised of coffee produced locally within China and less than 40% of the total consumption according to the USDA, reported to be imported green coffee.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 5,393 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 879,117 bags, with 98.02 % of these certified stocks held in Europe at a total of 861,703 bags and the remaining 1.98% being held in the USA at a total 17,414 Bags. Of this, a total 460,053 bags or 52.33% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 14.13% of these certified coffees, from Nicaragua. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 12,553 bags on the day, to register 98,086 bags pending grading on the day.

The January 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 68.56 Usc/Lb. This equates to 24.37% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the traditional ‘safe haven’ gold markets continuing on a bullish path as geopolitical tensions continue to rise. Cocoa, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Coffee Corn, Sugar and Soybean markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.268 Sterling, at 1.059 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.772 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading in modest firmer territory, before attracting selling pressure during the early morning session in light volumes of trade. The markets oscillated around par for the remainder of the morning session, trading within a comparatively narrow range on the day. Both the New York and London markets were seen to drop below par during the late morning session, to extend the losses for the day’s session. As the afternoon progressed the markets continued on a modest softer path to see the New York market set a floor for the session, finding support to rebound and recover most of the earlier losses during the late afternoon session to see the market settle on a softer note at the close ahead of first notice day, with open interest registering 5,746 lots, today in the prompt month in New York. The London market followed suit to also drop below par and before attracting some degree of selling pressure to see both the New York and London markets drop below par and set a floor for the day. The London market found support near to the lows to narrowly recover some of the earlier losses and settle on a softer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a softer note with 75.24% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note, with 28.13% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This follow through softer close for the markets, extending the losses from the close on Monday, does little to inspire confidence, albeit that the New York market recovered most of the earlier losses during the late afternoon session, one might therefore think that the markets are due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

JAN     4656 – 79                                         DEC    279.75 – 1.00
MAR   4609 – 66                                         MAR   281.30 – 0.90
MAY   4564 – 60                                         MAY    279.30 – 0.85
JUL     4506 – 52                                         JUL      275.80 – 0.90
SEP     4452 – 41                                         SEP      271.70 – 0.90
NOV   4409 – 29                                         DEC     265.15 – 1.10
JAN    4250 – 21                                         MAR    259.50 – 0.90
MAR  4300 – 11                                         MAY     253.50 – 1.00