Coffee Market Report

The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of October were 266,457 bags or 100.19% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 532,387 bags. This contributes to the islands cumulative robusta coffee exports for the first seven months of the current April 2024 to March 2025 coffee year to be 208,048 bags or 13.06% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 1,800,886 bags. The April 2024 to March 2025 coffee year, which is around 85% robusta coffee and the balance arabica coffee, has been conservatively forecast to potentially reach a median of 10 million bags.

The certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York Exchange continue to register gradual average increases, climbing to levels last seen in June 2022, up from more than twenty-year low recorded earlier this year that registered at 253,144 bags on the 4th January 2024, to now be 903,548 bags on Wednesday. This marks an increase of 610,002 bags or 207.80% from the same time last year when the certified washed arabica coffee stocks registered 293,546 bags on 28th November 2023.

The certified warehouse coffee stocks are stored in consumer country warehouses of the exchange in Europe and in the USA. The largest contribution toward the increase in certified stocks is Brazil semi-washed arabica coffee contributing 55.59%, and boosted by coffees from Central American washed arabica producer countries. Nicaragua contributes 13.02% and Peru 11.52% of the total held in exchange warehouses. The coffee origins that can deliver to the certified stocks are Brazil, Burundi, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Kenya, Mexico, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea, Panama, Peru, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. In view of the prevailing price structure in New York, and setting aside the complications of EUDR, the pending grading stocks could reflect more coffee and increased registrations to the certified stocks in the weeks and months ahead.

Yesterday was the Thanksgiving holiday in the USA, which saw the New York market closed for the day.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were unchanged yesterday, with the market closed for the Thanksgiving Holiday, to register these stocks at 903,548 bags, with 98.11% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 886,454 bags and the remaining 1.89% being held in the USA at a total 17,094 Bags. Of this, a total 502,300 bags or 55.60% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 13.20% of these certified coffees, from Nicaragua. The pending grading stocks were reduced by 2,214 bags on the day, to register 56,837 bags pending grading on the day.

The January 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 70.63 Usc/Lb. This equates to 21.86% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

Many of the commodity markets were on Holiday for the Thanksgiving Day public holiday in the USA yesterday, but for the markets that were trading yesterday there was an overall degree of buoyancy. The London robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Sugar market ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.271 Sterling, at 1.057 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 6.014 Brazil Real.

The London market, trading solo for the day, started the day trading on a firmer note. The market continued to gain momentum during the early morning session. As the afternoon progressed the market was seen to hit a ceiling for the day, limiting the gains to see the London market drop back into softer territory for the day. The market traded in negative territory through the early afternoon session, technical buyer support returned to reverse the trend and gain momentum into the afternoon session. The late afternoon session saw the market come under a brief degree of selling pressure to fall back from the afternoon rally and settle on a firmer note at the close. A less volatile session overall, and New York closed in observance of the USA Thanksgiving holiday.

The London market ended the day yesterday on a positive note with 40% of the earlier gains of the day intact. The participation from USA later today may be muted in view of the day, which many may bridge to make a long weekend. The markets may be due for a steady start to early trade today against the prices set in New York on Wednesday and in London yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.
Close: 28/11/2024                                        Close: 27/11/2024

JAN     5565 + 32                                         MAR    323.05 + 14.20
MAR   5528 + 32                                         MAY    320.70 + 14.40
MAY   5454 + 20                                         JUL      315.70 + 14.60
JUL     5370 + 10                                         SEP      310.20 + 14.45
SEP     5288 + 1                                           DEC     301.95 + 13.80
NOV   5218 – 5                                           MAR    293.65 + 12.70
JAN    5142 – 13                                          MAY    284.75 + 12.00
MAR  5077 – 13                                          JUL      275.75 + 11.35