Coffee Market Report
| The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund marginally decrease their net long position by 0.27% within this market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 26th November 2024; to register a new long position at 60,342 Lots. The longer term in nature, Index Fund sector of this market also marginally decrease their net long position by 0.42% within the market, to register a new net long position of 52,570 Lots on the day.
Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative marginally decrease their net long position by 2.50% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 26th November 2024: to register a new net long position of 39,726 lots, which is the equivalent of 11,262,145 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased following the period of overall softer trade that has since followed. The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil Cecafé have reported preliminary export data for the month of November to report that the countries green coffee exports were 5.74% higher than the same month last year, to total 4.42 million bags, this number made up of 3.72 million bags of arabica coffee and 694,209 bags of Conilon robusta coffee. The official export figure for November 2024 will be released by Cecafé in the weeks ahead, to more accurately reflect these figures. As shipments from Brazil 2024/25 coffee year flow to markets albeit through congested conditions out of key ports, there is some time ahead for the next Brazil 2025/26 coffee crop to come. The summer rainfall patterns have thus far been conducive and while weather conditions will continue to be closely monitored through December, and beyond, the conditions are reported to be ideal for the time of year, across the vast arabica districts. The Brazil Real has meanwhile lost 4.15% of this currency’s value against the US Dollar over the last seven days, which might encourage some degree of selling within the internal market. The weaker Brazil Real bringing in increased returns to producers, following US Dollar based sales. Negotiations in the European Union regarding the delay of the European Union Deforestation Regulation are reported to have reached a compromise yesterday. With the 12-month delay confirmed as going ahead, and the new implementation date being the 30th December 2025. The delay will go ahead but without the inclusion of the proposed ‘no-risk’ category. This means all operators and traders will need to comply with the regulations come the implementation date in 12 months’ time. Furthermore, the European Union announced that there would be an ‘emergency break’ break granted if the EU’s online system for companies is not fully operational by the end of December 2025. The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 3,724 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 904,272 bags, with 98.11% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 887,178 bags and the remaining 1.89% being held in the USA at a total 17,094 Bags. Of this, a total 508,374 bags or 56.22% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 12.82% of these certified coffees, from Nicaragua. The pending grading stocks were seen to remain unchanged on the day, to register 78,182 bags pending grading on the day. The January 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 85.67 Usc/Lb. This equates to 28.99% price discount for the London robusta coffee. It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, after newly released US Jobs data showed stronger than expected data, hinting at a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts and monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve in the months ahead. The Soybean, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Corn and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.266 Sterling, at 1.053 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 6.044 Brazil Real. The New York and London markets started the day trading to the south of par on softer notes respectively, the market registered a lower early morning session. Both the New York and London markets rebounded from the early lows as the volume began to increase to see the markets trade back towards par. As the afternoon progressed, both the New York and London markets found support to trend in a firmer direction albeit still trading below par for the day. The New York market was seen to gain ground and trade into positive territory during the afternoon session setting a new high for the day before dropping back to settle on a modest softer note at the close recovering most of the earlier losses of the day. The New York session reflected a degree of consolidation following the wide and volatile moves of late. The London market was seen to maintain more than half of the earlier losses of the day to see the market settle on a very negative note at the close in fair volumes on the day. The London market ended the day on a very negative note with 69.56% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day a likewise softer note, with 9.17% of the earlier losses of the day intact, within a comparatively narrow range on the day. The New York market recovered most of the earlier losses of the day to settle near to unchanged on the day to possibly see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB. JAN 4626 – 208 MAR 295.50 – 0.55 |
