Coffee Market Report
The International Coffee Organisation ICO have maintained their estimate for global coffee supply at 5.83% lower than the 2022/2023 coffee year at a total of 178.00 million bags for the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year. The International Coffee Organisation have likewise maintained their estimate for global consumption for the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year, to have grown by 2.25% from the previous year to reach a total of 177.00 million bags. The International Coffee Organisation is due to release their estimates for the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year.
The International Coffee Organisation ICO have reported that the global coffee exports for the month of October were 15.09% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 11.32 million bags. This marks the first month of the new October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year and follows the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year which reported exports at a total 137.27 million bags.
The report reflects an increase in exports from South America during October, which registered a 12.40% increase in exports to consumer markets, when compared to the same month in the previous year, to register 6.69 million bags through to the end of October. Brazil and Colombia, the primary source of exports with Brazil reporting 13.20% growth in exports to register 4.94 million bags exported in October 2024 and Colombia reporting a 15% growth in exports during October 2024 in comparison to the same month last year, to register 1.34 million bags exported.
The report confirms an increase in exports from Asia as Vietnam, India and Indonesia cumulatively registered 15.20% increase in exports, when compared to the same month in the previous year to total 2.49 million bags in October, largely led by an increase in exports of 42% from Indonesia during the month of October. Within the ICO report, exports were seen to have increased by 31.90% year on year from Africa to a total 1.46 million bags, with the main contributors of the increase in exports during the month of October, being Ethiopia with exports registering 62.40% higher year on year at 600,000 bags.
The ICO report similarly includes within the total global exports, the export figures, from Mexico and the traditional washed arabica Central American bloc; Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador, to report for October that exports were 8.80% higher than the same period in the previous year to total 500,000 bags.
The Brazil government have reported preliminary data to illustrate that the country’s green coffee exports for the month of November were 21.62% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 4,757,450 bags. The official breakdown of coffee exports by description for November can be anticipated to report the breakdown of this export data to arabica, robusta and soluble green coffee equivalent.
The Vietnam Customs Authority have reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports for the month of November have registered 49.10% lower than the same month in the previous month, at 1,000,000 bags. The cumulative export performance for the first two months of the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year in Vietnam the largest producer and exporter of robusta coffee to consumer markets, is reported to be 983,000 bags or 36.61% lower than the same period in the previous year, to cumulative two-month total at 1,733,333 bags.
The General Statistics office of Vietnam have at the same time reported the country’s coffee revenue value for the first eleven months of the calendar year, is reported at 35.40% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of approximately 4.90 billion US Dollars.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 275 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 897,011 bags, with 98.09% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 879,917 bags and the remaining 1.91% being held in the USA at a total 17,094 Bags. Of this, a total 517,175 bags or 57.66% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 11.47% of these certified coffees, from Nicaragua. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 2,136 bags on the day, to register 99,308 bags pending grading on the day.
The January 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 91.47 Usc/Lb. This equates to 29.18% price discount for the London robusta coffee.
It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the leading in influence Oil markets softer on the day. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Sugar, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.275 Sterling, at 1.057 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 6.013 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading a firmer note, carrying through momentum from the positive close on Wednesday. The New York market tread in modest firmer territory before gaining support into the late morning session. Both the New York and London markets were seen to build support as the day progressed. The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day pushed New York higher, triggering buy stops along the way to accentuate the gains for the day, the New York market gained ground throughout the afternoon session, with the London market following suit to make significant gains throughout the afternoon session. The New York market continued the upward momentum before being capped very late in the day, to see the market marginally drop back and settle on a very firm note at the close. The London market followed suit to settle on a very firm note at the close, with most of the earlier gains of the day intact.
The London market ended the day on a positive note with 91.24% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day a likewise positive note, with 84.12% of the earlier gains of the day intact. The firmer close for the markets, might indicate some degree of support and direction with both the New York and London market gaining momentum throughout the session to settle near to the highs of the day albeit in fair volumes of trade. One might therefore think that the markets might be pressured for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
JAN 4895 + 125 MAR 313.50 + 9.80
MAR 4873 + 122 MAY 311.30 + 9.55
MAY 4827 + 125 JUL 306.55 + 9.30
JUL 4767 + 129 SEP 301.10 + 8.90
SEP 4686 + 130 DEC 292.55 + 8.30
NOV 4614 + 131 MAR 284.20 + 7.95
JAN 4540 + 131 MAY 275.40 + 7.35
MAR 4475 + 131 JUL 266.80 + 6.80
