Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 1.71% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 3rd. December 2024: to register a new long position of 39,045 lots, which is the equivalent of 11,069,084 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased marginally following the period of overall firmer trade that has since followed.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector increase their net long position by 9.94% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 3rd. December 2024: to register a new net long position of 21,993 Lots which is the equivalent of 3,665,500 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed further following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 8,820 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 905,831 bags, with 98.11% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 888,737 bags and the remaining 1.89% being held in the USA at a total 17,094 Bags. Of this, a total 525,995 bags or 58.07% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 11.36% of these certified coffees, from Nicaragua. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 6,825 bags on the day, to register 106,133 bags pending grading on the day.
The January 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened on Friday, to register this at 97.87 Usc/Lb. This equates to 29.64% price discount for the London robusta coffee. This arbitrage has widened by 60 Usc/Lb over the last 2 months, following a 5-year low 25.29 Usc/Lb recorded in September this year. The prevailing wider arbitrage may some alleviation in tightness for robusta coffee, as the Vietnam robusta crop harvest increases pace, and the uncertainty surrounding EUDR regulations, eases.
It was a mixed day on the commodity markets on Friday, with the market turning to the US jobs data that reflected an easing in growth, with a largely accepted view that a further 25 basis point interest rate cut will come later this month. The Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Gold markets ended the day on a firm note, the Soybean market remained unchanged on the day, while the Wheat, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.272 Sterling, at 1.053 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 6.089 Brazil Real.
The New York market started the day on Friday trading on a modest softer note before quickly gaining support to trade in positive territory, while the London market started the day trading on a very firm note, carrying through the support from the close on Thursday. The volume in both New York and London market started to build and the market traded firmer in a void of sellers to cap the gains. In a choppy session stops were triggered as the day progressed. As the afternoon progressed the markets were seen to steadily make gains, bringing fresh volume to New York to accentuate the technical day, buy stop action and speculative short covering activity saw the New York market gain ground quickly through the latter day. London followed suit to register significant gains throughout the afternoon session. The New York market continued upward momentum, before being capped very late in the day, to see the market marginally drop back and settle on a very firm note at the close. The London market followed was also seen to settle on a very firm note at the close, with most of the earlier gains of the day intact.
The London market ended the day on a positive note with 86.58% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day a likewise very positive note, with 92.03% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This follow through very firm close continues to indicate support and direction with both the New York and London market following fair trade volume. To possibly see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
JAN 5153 + 258 MAR 330.25 + 16.75
MAR 5116 + 243 MAY 327.60 + 16.30
MAY 5065 + 238 JUL 321.95 + 15.40
JUL 5000 + 233 SEP 314.15 + 13.05
SEP 4911 + 225 DEC 303.20 + 10.65
NOV 4831 + 217 MAR 293.65 + 9.45
JAN 4753 + 213 MAY 284.20 + 8.80
MAR 4686 + 211 JUL 274.45 + 7.65
