Coffee Market Report
In the latest round of independent Brazil crop forecast updates, a price reporting agency and research firm has come forth with their preliminary forecast for Brazil coffee production, to report that total production could potentially be between 68 million to 70 million bags the coming July 2025 to June 2026 coffee year.
The forecast anticipates 43 million bags of mostly natural arabica coffee to come from this leading producer, along with an estimated 26 million bags Conilon robusta coffee. The crop forecaster has reported that Brazil has seen conducive weather since October, with good flowering and cherry set. This forecast follows a number of other publicly announced July 2025 to June 2026 Brazil crop year estimates. One might comment that this latest forecast is on the bullish side of estimates when compared to other forecasters, that by now has estimates ranging between 34 and 43 million bags of arabica production, a wide range for the Brazil 2025/2026 coffee crop to come.
The analysts Safras & Mercado have reported that Brazil coffee farmers have sold around 79% of the estimated total production of 66.04 million bags from this current Brazil Coffee crop. The pace of sale is well ahead of the same time last year, where this was recorded at 69%, thus illustrating that farmers within the worlds largest producer country are in a well-financed position going into the new year.
The weather reports from Brazil indicate that the main arabica coffee districts in Southeast Brazil have received good levels of rainfall for December thus far, with further rainfall expected over the next week. Temperatures are due to remain in the mid-twenties in degrees Celsius for week ahead.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 9,969 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 929,357 bags, with 98.16% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 912,263 bags and the remaining 1.84% being held in the USA at a total 17,094 Bags. Of this, a total 557,533 bags or 59.99% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 10.95% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 7,096 bags on the day, to register 102,514 bags pending grading on the day.
The January 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 85.65 Usc/Lb. This equates to 26.67% price discount for the London robusta coffee.
It was a softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the leading in influence Oil markets softer on the day, on the back of a firmer US Dollar against a basket of other currencies which is traditionally a bearish factor for commodities traded in other currencies. The Coffee, Cocoa and Soybean markets ended the day on a firm note, while the Corn, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.267 Sterling, at 1.046 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.997 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a softer note, to extend the losses from the close on Wednesday. Both markets attracted support during the early morning session to track mildly firmer for the remainder of the morning session before gaining momentum, as support built during the late morning session. As the afternoon progressed the New York market hit a ceiling to limit the gains for the day with sellers returning to the floor. The New York market pushed lower before finding support late in the day to see the market rebound from the lows to trade in firmer territory. The London market continued on a firmer path carrying upward momentum into the afternoon session. The London market dropped back from the late afternoon highs to settle on a firmer note, while the New York market support saw the market recover to maintain some of the earlier gains and settle on a firmer note at the close.
The London market ended the day on a positive note with 33.67% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day a likewise positive note, with 22.34% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This led to a firmer close for the markets albeit that both the New York and the London markets fell back from the highs of the day during a comparatively light volume session. With limited producer selling activity and much of the industry removed at these market levels, one might think that the markets are due for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
JAN 5194 + 33 MAR 321.25 + 1.05
MAR 5152 + 51 MAY 319.00 + 1.20
MAY 5095 + 53 JUL 314.45 + 1.40
JUL 5019 + 55 SEP 307.60 + 1.55
SEP 4931 + 54 DEC 294.75 + 1.00
NOV 4858 + 53 MAR 284.45 + 0.60
JAN 4780 + 53 MAY 274.60 + 0.60
MAR 4710 + 53 JUL 264.55 + 0.50
